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Aalen vs Freiberg

Germany Germany

Regionalliga Sudwest OSTALB ARENA, Aalen
Our Tip

Match Events

15' Event
Doringer J.
71' Event
Gaudino G.
77' Event
Steinkotter J.

AI Match Summary

The Regionalliga Sudwest game between Aalen and Freiberg finished 2-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Freiberg.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

34%
Aalen
35%
Draws
31%
Freiberg
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Aalen come out ahead of Freiberg on wins alone.
  • Model gives Aalen a 42% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Regionalliga Sudwest form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.8%
Aalen Clean Sheet 12%
Freiberg Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Aalen Freiberg
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 17 11
Draws 7 9
Losses 4 8
Goals Scored 2.18 2.07
Goals Conceded 1 1.68
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 19, 2026 Regionalliga Sudwest
Aalen vs Freiberg
2:3
Jan 24, 2026 Club Friendly
Aalen vs Freiberg
1:3
May 18, 2024 Regionalliga Sudwest
Freiberg vs Aalen
3:1
Nov 11, 2023 Regionalliga Sudwest
Aalen vs Freiberg
2:1
Feb 25, 2023 Club Friendly
Aalen vs Freiberg
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Aalen Compare

Top Goalscorer Doringer J.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Gaudino G.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Freiberg Compare

Top Goalscorer Steinkotter J.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Lee G.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Aalen 40 / 100
Freiberg 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Aalen Freiberg

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Aalen scored in 93% of their last 28 games.

Games between these two average 3.20 goals.

Freiberg's defensive record shows goals conceded in 61% of 28 matches.

Solid form: Aalen remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Aalen VS Freiberg
1.5 Goals Scored 2.38
1.13 Goals Conceded 1
100% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 75%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Aalen

(Home)
13 Sept
VfR Mannheim
0 : 0
Aalen
08 Sept
Aalen
2 : 0
Ulm
05 Sept
Aalen
2 : 0
Eintracht Trier
30 Aug
Mainz II
1 : 3
Aalen
22 Aug
Aalen
0 : 3
Eintracht Frankfurt II
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Freiberg

(Away)
12 Sept
Freiberg
5 : 0
Mainz II
08 Sept
Sandhausen
0 : 0
Freiberg
04 Sept
Ulm
4 : 4
Freiberg
29 Aug
Freiberg
2 : 1
Eintracht Frankfurt II
22 Aug
VfR Mannheim
0 : 0
Freiberg
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Kickers Offenbach 8 6 1 1 19:8 19
2 Stutt. Kickers 8 5 1 2 15:11 16
3 Freiberg 7 4 3 0 19:5 15
4 Eintracht Trier 8 4 1 3 9:7 13
5 FC 08 Homburg 7 4 1 2 10:9 13
6 FSV Frankfurt 8 3 3 2 13:9 12
7 Aalen 7 3 3 1 9:6 12
8 Freiburg II 7 2 4 1 13:9 10
9 TSV Steinbach Haiger 7 2 3 2 12:12 9
10 Kassel 7 3 0 4 12:13 9
11 VfR Mannheim 7 1 5 1 6:6 8
12 Sandhausen 7 2 2 3 11:16 8
13 Eintracht Frankfurt II 7 2 1 4 10:12 7
14 Astoria Walldorf 7 1 3 3 8:12 6
15 Mainz II 7 2 0 5 8:17 6
16 Fulda-Lehnerz 7 1 2 4 10:13 5
17 Kaiserslautern II 7 1 2 4 5:17 5
18 Ulm 7 0 3 4 9:16 3
Promotion - 3. Liga 2027/2028 (Main)