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Aalen vs Freiberg - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Germany Germany

Regionalliga Sudwest Bediani Arena, Aalen
Our Tip

Match Events

15' Event
Doringer J.
71' Event
Gaudino G.
77' Event
Steinkotter J.

AI Match Summary

The Regionalliga Sudwest game between Aalen and Freiberg finished 2-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Freiberg.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

44%
Aalen
30%
Draws
26%
Freiberg
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Aalen

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

44% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Aalen come out ahead of Freiberg on wins alone.
  • Model gives Aalen a 44% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Regionalliga Sudwest form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.2%
Aalen Clean Sheet 16%
Freiberg Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Aalen Freiberg
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 19 10
Draws 6 12
Losses 3 7
Goals Scored 2.14 1.9
Goals Conceded 0.82 1.66
Expected Goals (xG) 1.56 1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 19, 2026 Regionalliga Sudwest
Aalen vs Freiberg
2:3
Jan 24, 2026 Club Friendly
Aalen vs Freiberg
1:3
May 18, 2024 Regionalliga Sudwest
Freiberg vs Aalen
3:1
Nov 11, 2023 Regionalliga Sudwest
Aalen vs Freiberg
2:1
Feb 25, 2023 Club Friendly
Aalen vs Freiberg
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Aalen Compare

Top Goalscorer Doringer J.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Gaudino G.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.2
Avg xA / game 0.78

Freiberg Compare

Top Goalscorer Steinkotter J.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Lee G.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.31
Avg xA / game 0.8

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Aalen 66 / 100
Freiberg 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Aalen Freiberg

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Aalen Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Aalen scored in 93% of their last 28 games.

Games between these two average 3.20 goals.

Recent resilience: Aalen stayed unbeaten in 5 of the last 5 games.

Defensive concern: Freiberg conceded in 69% of 29 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Aalen VS Freiberg
2.13 Goals Scored 2.25
0.63 Goals Conceded 1
88% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 75%
38% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Aalen

(Home)
31 Oct
Stutt. Kickers
0 : 1
Aalen
24 Oct
Sandhausen
0 : 1
Aalen
17 Oct
Aalen
2 : 0
Astoria Walldorf
10 Oct
Fulda-Lehnerz
0 : 2
Aalen
03 Oct
Aalen
4 : 1
FSV Frankfurt
Page 1 of 6

Freiberg

(Away)
31 Oct
Freiberg
0 : 0
Astoria Walldorf
23 Oct
Kickers Offenbach
1 : 1
Freiberg
17 Oct
Freiberg
3 : 0
Fulda-Lehnerz
11 Oct
Freiburg II
1 : 2
Freiberg
03 Oct
Freiberg
2 : 2
TSV Steinbach Haiger
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Aalen 14 9 3 2 24:11 30
2 VfR Mannheim 14 8 5 1 25:11 29
3 Freiberg 14 7 7 0 32:13 28
4 Kickers Offenbach 14 7 3 4 27:19 24
5 Stutt. Kickers 14 7 2 5 22:19 23
6 Eintracht Trier 14 7 2 5 16:17 23
7 Freiburg II 14 5 6 3 25:19 21
8 FC 08 Homburg 14 5 6 3 18:17 21
9 Sandhausen 14 5 4 5 21:24 19
10 TSV Steinbach Haiger 14 4 5 5 22:22 17
11 Eintracht Frankfurt II 14 5 1 8 18:22 16
12 Astoria Walldorf 14 3 5 6 20:22 14
13 FSV Frankfurt 14 3 5 6 22:25 14
14 Kassel 14 4 2 8 21:29 14
15 Mainz II 14 4 2 8 15:27 14
16 Fulda-Lehnerz 14 3 3 8 18:28 12
17 Ulm 14 1 8 5 17:24 11
18 Kaiserslautern II 14 2 5 7 16:30 11
Promotion - 3. Liga 2027/2028 (Main)