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Aalen vs Ulm

Germany Germany

Regionalliga Sudwest OSTALB ARENA, Aalen
2 - 0
FT
Our Tip

Match Events

38' Event
Melo D.
83' Event
Melo D.

AI Match Summary

The Regionalliga Sudwest game between Aalen and Ulm finished 2-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Aalen.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

50%
Aalen
35%
Draws
15%
Ulm
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Aalen

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

50% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Aalen come out ahead of Ulm on wins alone.
  • Model gives Aalen a 50% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Regionalliga Sudwest form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 76.6%
Aalen Clean Sheet 20%
Ulm Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Aalen Ulm
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 17 8
Draws 7 7
Losses 4 13
Goals Scored 2.21 1.57
Goals Conceded 1 2.04
Expected Goals (xG) 1.81 0.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 8, 2026 Regionalliga Sudwest
Aalen vs Ulm
2:0
Jun 28, 2025 Club Friendly
Aalen vs Ulm
3:4
Jul 19, 2023 Club Friendly
Aalen vs Ulm
0:8
Apr 4, 2023 Regionalliga Sudwest
Ulm vs Aalen
0:0
Sep 24, 2022 Regionalliga Sudwest
Aalen vs Ulm
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Aalen Compare

Top Goalscorer Melo D.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.39
Avg xA / game 0.91

Ulm Compare

Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.52

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Aalen 67 / 100
Ulm 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Aalen Ulm

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Aalen Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Aalen scored in 93% of their last 28 outings.

Ulm's defensive record shows goals conceded in 93% of 28 matches.

Games between these two average 3.80 goals.

Solid form: Aalen remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Aalen VS Ulm
1.25 Goals Scored 1
0.88 Goals Conceded 2.38
88% Over 1.5 75%
25% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Aalen

(Home)
19 Sept
Aalen
2 : 3
Freiberg
13 Sept
VfR Mannheim
0 : 0
Aalen
08 Sept
Aalen
2 : 0
Ulm
05 Sept
Aalen
2 : 0
Eintracht Trier
30 Aug
Mainz II
1 : 3
Aalen
Page 1 of 6

Ulm

(Away)
19 Sept
Sandhausen
2 : 2
Ulm
12 Sept
Ulm
1 : 2
FSV Frankfurt
08 Sept
Aalen
2 : 0
Ulm
04 Sept
Ulm
4 : 4
Freiberg
29 Aug
Astoria Walldorf
0 : 0
Ulm
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Kickers Offenbach 8 6 1 1 19:8 19
2 Freiberg 8 5 3 0 22:7 18
3 Stutt. Kickers 8 5 1 2 15:11 16
4 FC 08 Homburg 8 4 2 2 12:11 14
5 Freiburg II 8 3 4 1 16:11 13
6 Eintracht Trier 8 4 1 3 9:7 13
7 FSV Frankfurt 8 3 3 2 13:9 12
8 Aalen 8 3 3 2 11:9 12
9 VfR Mannheim 8 2 5 1 9:8 11
10 Kassel 8 3 1 4 14:15 10
11 Eintracht Frankfurt II 8 3 1 4 11:12 10
12 TSV Steinbach Haiger 8 2 3 3 12:13 9
13 Sandhausen 8 2 3 3 13:18 9
14 Kaiserslautern II 8 2 2 4 6:17 8
15 Astoria Walldorf 8 1 3 4 10:15 6
16 Mainz II 8 2 0 6 8:18 6
17 Fulda-Lehnerz 8 1 2 5 12:16 5
18 Ulm 8 0 4 4 11:18 4
Promotion - 3. Liga 2027/2028 (Main)