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Aarau vs Stade Nyonnais - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Switzerland Switzerland

Challenge League Stadion Brügglifeld, Aarau
Our Tip

Match Events

2'
Brandy E.
8'
Petit-Viretti V.
24'
Sub
Brandy E. In: Grognuz N.
Out: Brandy E.

AI Match Summary

Aarau in this Challenge League matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Aarau.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

16%
Aarau
20%
Draws
64%
Stade Nyonnais
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Stade Nyonnais

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

16% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Aarau lately — more wins on the board than Stade Nyonnais.
  • Aarau are the model's pick here, at 50%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 87%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 87%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 80.2%
Aarau Clean Sheet 16%
Stade Nyonnais Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Aarau Stade Nyonnais
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 11 3
Draws 8 9
Losses 10 17
Goals Scored 1.72 0.93
Goals Conceded 1.69 2.14
Expected Goals (xG) 2.31 1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 9, 2026 Challenge League
Stade Nyonnais vs Aarau
2:1
Aug 7, 2026 Challenge League
Aarau vs Stade Nyonnais
2:1
May 8, 2026 Challenge League
Aarau vs Stade Nyonnais
5:1
Feb 20, 2026 Challenge League
Stade Nyonnais vs Aarau
1:1
Nov 22, 2025 Challenge League
Aarau vs Stade Nyonnais
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Aarau Compare

Top Goalscorer Koide H.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Baturina R.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.78
Avg xA / game 1.16

Stade Nyonnais Compare

Avg xG / game 1.31
Avg xA / game 0.8

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Aarau 48 / 100
Stade Nyonnais 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Aarau Stade Nyonnais

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Aarau Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 5:3
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Aarau's goal record stands at 86% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Stade Nyonnais let in goals in 90% of their last 29 matches.

Historical meetings average 3.00 goals per match.

Stade Nyonnais's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

Aarau VS Stade Nyonnais
2.13 Goals Scored 1
1.88 Goals Conceded 2.5
100% Over 1.5 88%
100% Over 2.5 88%
50% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Aarau

(Home)
09 Oct
Stade Nyonnais
2 : 1
Aarau
02 Oct
Aarau
1 : 2
Young Boys
24 Sept
Grasshoppers
4 : 1
Aarau
18 Sept
Winterthur
2 : 1
Aarau
12 Sept
Aarau
2 : 2
Kriens
Page 1 of 6

Stade Nyonnais

(Away)
09 Oct
Stade Nyonnais
2 : 1
Aarau
18 Sept
Wil
5 : 0
Stade Nyonnais
11 Sept
Stade Nyonnais
1 : 3
Xamax
06 Sept
Yverdon
4 : 1
Stade Nyonnais
01 Sept
Stade Nyonnais
2 : 2
Winterthur
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Lausanne Ouchy 10 7 3 0 20:3 24
2 Yverdon 10 5 4 1 16:9 19
3 Winterthur 10 5 3 2 19:11 18
4 Kriens 10 4 3 3 17:12 15
5 Xamax 10 5 0 5 15:17 15
6 Aarau 10 3 3 4 15:18 12
7 Rapperswil-Jona 10 3 1 6 15:19 10
8 Wil 10 2 4 4 16:22 10
9 Etoile-Carouge 10 2 3 5 8:14 9
10 Stade Nyonnais 10 1 2 7 8:24 5
Promotion - Super League 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Challenge League (Promotion)
Relegation - Promotion League 2027/2028 (Main)