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Aarau vs Stade Nyonnais

Switzerland Switzerland

Challenge League 2025/2026 Stadion Brügglifeld, Aarau
Our Tip

Match Events

12' Event
Afriyie D.
Assist: Obexer L.
17' Event
Mastil M.
Own Goal
31'
Bega L.

AI Match Summary

Aarau in this Challenge League 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 5-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Aarau.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

54%
Aarau
30%
Draws
16%
Stade Nyonnais
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Aarau

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

54% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Aarau lately — more wins on the board than Stade Nyonnais.
  • 54% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Regular Challenge League 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 38%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77.4%
Aarau Clean Sheet 19%
Stade Nyonnais Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Aarau Stade Nyonnais
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 14 2
Draws 7 10
Losses 7 17
Goals Scored 1.93 0.86
Goals Conceded 1.54 1.86
Expected Goals (xG) 2.00 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 7, 2026 Challenge League
Aarau vs Stade Nyonnais
2:1
May 8, 2026 Challenge League
Aarau vs Stade Nyonnais
5:1
Feb 20, 2026 Challenge League
Stade Nyonnais vs Aarau
1:1
Nov 22, 2025 Challenge League
Aarau vs Stade Nyonnais
0:1
Aug 22, 2025 Challenge League
Stade Nyonnais vs Aarau
4:5

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Aarau Compare

Top Goalscorer Afriyie D.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Frokaj L.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 1

Stade Nyonnais Compare

Top Goalscorer Bega L.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Aarau 31 / 100
Stade Nyonnais 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Aarau Stade Nyonnais

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Aarau Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Aarau scored in 86% of their last 28 outings.

Stade Nyonnais has conceded goals in 90% of their last 29 outings.

H2H data points to 4.20 goals as a typical output.

Aarau went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Aarau VS Stade Nyonnais
1.38 Goals Scored 1.25
1.25 Goals Conceded 2.63
63% Over 1.5 100%
63% Over 2.5 75%
38% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Aarau

(Home)
07 Aug
Aarau
2 : 1
Stade Nyonnais
01 Aug
Aarau
1 : 1
Lausanne Ouchy
24 Jul
Etoile-Carouge
3 : 0
Aarau
18 Jul
Aarau
2 : 1
Union Berlin
10 Jul
A. Lustenau
1 : 0
Aarau
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Stade Nyonnais

(Away)
07 Aug
Aarau
2 : 1
Stade Nyonnais
31 Jul
Stade Nyonnais
1 : 2
Rapperswil-Jona
24 Jul
Lausanne Ouchy
2 : 0
Stade Nyonnais
11 Jul
Bulle
4 : 4
Stade Nyonnais
04 Jul
Servette
1 : 1
Stade Nyonnais
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vaduz 36 25 6 5 75:41 81
2 Aarau 36 25 5 6 77:47 80
3 Yverdon 36 20 7 9 75:48 67
4 Lausanne Ouchy 36 14 8 14 59:51 50
5 Xamax 36 14 7 15 55:56 49
6 Rapperswil-Jona 36 14 2 20 52:62 44
7 Etoile-Carouge 36 10 10 16 46:54 40
8 Wil 36 10 10 16 39:55 40
9 Stade Nyonnais 36 5 13 18 33:60 28
10 Bellinzona 36 5 8 23 40:77 23
Promotion - Super League (Main)
Promotion - Super League 2025/2026 (Relegation)
Relegation - Promotion League (Main)