Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Aarau vs Union Berlin

World World

Club Friendly
Our Tip

Match Events

2' Event
Muller S.
(Penalty)
41' Event
Ljubicic M.
(Penalty)
46'
Sub
Thaler M. In: Arkovic T.
Out: Thaler M.

AI Match Summary

Aarau in this Club Friendly matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Aarau.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
Aarau
30%
Draws
31%
Union Berlin
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Aarau

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

39% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Aarau lately — more wins on the board than Union Berlin.
  • Model gives Aarau a 39% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Club Friendly form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 89%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 100%
Over 2.5 Goals 89%
Over 3.5 Goals 75%
Over 4.5 Goals 34%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 79.8%
Aarau Clean Sheet 11%
Union Berlin Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Aarau Union Berlin
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 13 7
Draws 7 7
Losses 8 15
Goals Scored 1.86 1.76
Goals Conceded 1.57 2.24
Expected Goals (xG) 2.75 1.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 18, 2026 Club Friendly
Aarau vs Union Berlin
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Aarau Compare

Top Goalscorer Afriyie D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 2.12
Avg xA / game 1.38

Union Berlin Compare

Avg xG / game 1.65
Avg xA / game 1.01

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Aarau 83 / 100
Union Berlin 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Aarau Union Berlin

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Aarau Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Aarau found the back of the net in 86% of recent matches (28 games).

Union Berlin's defensive record shows goals conceded in 90% of 29 matches.

Historical meetings average 3.00 goals per match.

Recent resilience: Aarau stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Aarau VS Union Berlin
2.13 Goals Scored 1.88
1.75 Goals Conceded 3.38
100% Over 1.5 100%
88% Over 2.5 100%
50% Over 3.5 100%

Recent Form & Match History

Aarau

(Home)
24 Sept
Grasshoppers
4 : 1
Aarau
18 Sept
Winterthur
2 : 1
Aarau
12 Sept
Aarau
2 : 2
Kriens
04 Sept
Aarau
3 : 2
Rapperswil-Jona
31 Aug
Wil
2 : 2
Aarau
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Union Berlin

(Away)
18 Sept
Bayern Munich
7 : 0
Union Berlin
11 Sept
Union Berlin
1 : 3
Schalke
05 Sept
Bayer Leverkusen
4 : 0
Union Berlin
29 Aug
Union Berlin
3 : 3
Eintracht Frankfurt
23 Aug
Braunschweig
2 : 4
Union Berlin
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