Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Aarau vs Union Berlin

World World

Club Friendly
Our Tip

Match Events

2' Event
Muller S.
(Penalty)
41' Event
Ljubicic M.
(Penalty)
46'
Sub
Thaler M. In: Arkovic T.
Out: Thaler M.

AI Match Summary

Aarau in this Club Friendly matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Aarau.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Aarau
40%
Draws
29%
Union Berlin
Draw rate projection: 40% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

66% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Aarau lately — more wins on the board than Union Berlin.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 40% draw probability.
  • Regular Club Friendly form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 79%
Aarau Clean Sheet 10%
Union Berlin Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Aarau Union Berlin
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 13 8
Draws 6 8
Losses 9 12
Goals Scored 1.38 3
Goals Conceded 1.25 1.38
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 3.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.25 1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 18, 2026 Club Friendly
Aarau vs Union Berlin
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Aarau Compare

Top Goalscorer Afriyie D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Union Berlin Compare

Avg xG / game 2.73
Avg xA / game 1.67

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Aarau 30 / 100
Union Berlin 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Aarau Union Berlin

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Aarau found the back of the net in 86% of recent matches (28 games).

Union Berlin's defensive record shows goals conceded in 86% of 28 matches.

Historical meetings average 3.00 goals per match.

Recent resilience: Aarau stayed unbeaten in 1 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Aarau VS Union Berlin
1.38 Goals Scored 3
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.38
63% Over 1.5 100%
63% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Aarau

(Home)
24 Jul
Etoile-Carouge
3 : 0
Aarau
18 Jul
Aarau
2 : 1
Union Berlin
10 Jul
A. Lustenau
1 : 0
Aarau
30 Jun
Aarau
1 : 3
St. Gallen II
21 May
Grasshoppers
2 : 1
Aarau
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Union Berlin

(Away)
18 Jul
Aarau
2 : 1
Union Berlin
17 Jul
Winterthur
1 : 1
Union Berlin
12 Jul
Jena
2 : 0
Union Berlin
09 Jul
Chemnitzer
1 : 1
Union Berlin
04 Jul
Rathenow
2 : 12
Union Berlin
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