Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Aarau vs Xamax

Switzerland Switzerland

Challenge League Stadion Brügglifeld, Aarau
Our Tip

Match Events

39'
Abedini E.
44'
Sub
Likar U. In: Mossi A.
Out: Likar U.
45' Event
Muller S.
Penalty Missed

AI Match Summary

Aarau in this Challenge League matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Aarau.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

45%
Aarau
15%
Draws
40%
Xamax
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Aarau

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

45% / Medium Confidence
  • Xamax haven't matched Aarau's recent run of results.
  • 45% — that's where the model lands on Aarau taking it.
  • Regular Challenge League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Aarau here — 5 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 79.4%
Aarau Clean Sheet 15%
Xamax Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Aarau Xamax
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 14 12
Draws 7 4
Losses 7 13
Goals Scored 1.96 1.62
Goals Conceded 1.54 1.69
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 1.56
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 28, 2026 Challenge League
Aarau vs Xamax
2:1
May 1, 2026 Challenge League
Xamax vs Aarau
1:3
Mar 21, 2026 Challenge League
Aarau vs Xamax
1:0
Nov 28, 2025 Challenge League
Xamax vs Aarau
1:2
Aug 9, 2025 Challenge League
Aarau vs Xamax
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Aarau Compare

Top Goalscorer Guindo M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Beka Beka A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

Xamax Compare

Top Goalscorer Mulaj L.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.42
Avg xA / game 0.87

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Aarau 39 / 100
Xamax 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Aarau Xamax

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Aarau Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Aarau scored in 86% of their last 28 games.

Xamax's defensive record shows goals conceded in 79% of 29 matches.

These sides typically produce 2.60 goals when they meet.

Aarau went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Aarau VS Xamax
1.5 Goals Scored 1.5
1.63 Goals Conceded 1.5
88% Over 1.5 63%
75% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Aarau

(Home)
28 Aug
Aarau
2 : 1
Xamax
23 Aug
Yverdon
2 : 1
Aarau
16 Aug
Biel
3 : 4
Aarau
07 Aug
Aarau
2 : 1
Stade Nyonnais
01 Aug
Aarau
1 : 1
Lausanne Ouchy
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Xamax

(Away)
28 Aug
Aarau
2 : 1
Xamax
21 Aug
Xamax
1 : 2
Lausanne Ouchy
15 Aug
Meyrin
0 : 1
Xamax
07 Aug
Etoile-Carouge
0 : 1
Xamax
31 Jul
Wil
1 : 2
Xamax
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Lausanne Ouchy 5 3 2 0 8:3 11
2 Kriens 5 3 0 2 9:5 9
3 Yverdon 5 2 3 0 8:5 9
4 Xamax 5 3 0 2 8:7 9
5 Winterthur 5 2 2 1 10:5 8
6 Etoile-Carouge 5 2 2 1 6:3 8
7 Aarau 5 2 1 2 6:8 7
8 Wil 5 1 1 3 7:14 4
9 Rapperswil-Jona 5 1 0 4 7:12 3
10 Stade Nyonnais 5 0 1 4 2:9 1
Promotion - Super League 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Challenge League (Promotion)
Relegation - Promotion League 2027/2028 (Main)