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Aarau vs Xamax - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Switzerland Switzerland

Challenge League Stadion Brügglifeld, Aarau
Aarau Logo

Aarau

2 - 1
FT
Xamax Logo

Xamax

Our Tip

Match Events

39'
Abedini E.
44'
Sub
Likar U. In: Mossi A.
Out: Likar U.
45' Event
Muller S.
Penalty Missed
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Aarau in this Challenge League matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Aarau.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
Aarau
15%
Draws
46%
Xamax
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Xamax

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

46% / Medium Confidence
  • Aarau haven't matched Xamax's recent run of results.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 44% draw probability.
  • Regular Challenge League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 91%).
  • History favors Aarau here — 5 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 100%
Over 2.5 Goals 91%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 81.4%
Aarau Clean Sheet 12%
Xamax Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Aarau Xamax
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 11 12
Draws 7 2
Losses 11 14
Goals Scored 1.66 1.68
Goals Conceded 1.62 2
Expected Goals (xG) 1.81 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 30, 2026 Challenge League
Xamax vs Aarau
1:3
Aug 28, 2026 Challenge League
Aarau vs Xamax
2:1
May 1, 2026 Challenge League
Xamax vs Aarau
1:3
Mar 21, 2026 Challenge League
Aarau vs Xamax
1:0
Nov 28, 2025 Challenge League
Xamax vs Aarau
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Aarau Compare

Top Goalscorer Guindo M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Beka Beka A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.39
Avg xA / game 0.91

Xamax Compare

Top Goalscorer Mulaj L.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Aarau 35 / 100
Xamax 20 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Aarau Xamax

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Xamax Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Aarau scored in 83% of their last 29 games.

Xamax's defensive record shows goals conceded in 82% of 28 matches.

These sides typically produce 3.00 goals when they meet.

Aarau went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Aarau VS Xamax
1.5 Goals Scored 1.5
2 Goals Conceded 2.13
100% Over 1.5 100%
88% Over 2.5 100%
38% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Aarau

(Home)
06 Nov
Aarau
0 : 3
Wil
30 Oct
Xamax
1 : 3
Aarau
24 Oct
Aarau
1 : 2
Etoile-Carouge
18 Oct
Aarau
2 : 0
Zurich
09 Oct
Stade Nyonnais
2 : 1
Aarau
Page 1 of 6

Xamax

(Away)
30 Oct
Xamax
1 : 3
Aarau
23 Oct
Lausanne Ouchy
0 : 0
Xamax
18 Oct
Langenthal
2 : 3
Xamax
09 Oct
Xamax
3 : 0
Winterthur
02 Oct
Sochaux
2 : 1
Xamax
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Lausanne Ouchy 12 8 4 0 23:5 28
2 Winterthur 12 7 3 2 26:11 24
3 Yverdon 12 6 4 2 23:14 22
4 Kriens 12 4 4 4 21:19 16
5 Xamax 12 5 1 6 16:20 16
6 Aarau 12 4 3 5 19:21 15
7 Etoile-Carouge 12 3 4 5 12:17 13
8 Rapperswil-Jona 12 3 2 7 18:25 11
9 Wil 12 2 5 5 18:27 11
10 Stade Nyonnais 12 2 2 8 12:29 8
Promotion - Super League 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Challenge League (Promotion)
Relegation - Promotion League 2027/2028 (Main)