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Aberdeen vs St. Mirren - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Scotland Scotland

Premiership Pittodrie Stadium, Aberdeen
Our Tip

Match Events

2' Event
Lyons B.
Assist: Ronan C.
31'
Carr R.
42' Event
Sule E.
Assist: Phillips K.

AI Match Summary

The Premiership game between Aberdeen and St. Mirren finished 3-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Aberdeen.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
Aberdeen
15%
Draws
34%
St. Mirren
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Aberdeen

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Aberdeen carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 51% — that's where the model lands on Aberdeen taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 38%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67%
Aberdeen Clean Sheet 20%
St. Mirren Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Aberdeen St. Mirren
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 15 12
Draws 3 4
Losses 11 13
Goals Scored 1.62 1.38
Goals Conceded 1.17 1.62
Expected Goals (xG) 2.00 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 17, 2026 Premiership
Aberdeen vs St. Mirren
3:1
May 12, 2026 Premiership
Aberdeen vs St. Mirren
0:2
Apr 4, 2026 Premiership
St. Mirren vs Aberdeen
2:0
Dec 3, 2025 Premiership
Aberdeen vs St. Mirren
3:3
Oct 18, 2025 Premiership
St. Mirren vs Aberdeen
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Aberdeen Compare

Top Goalscorer Lyons B.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Nisbet K.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 1

St. Mirren Compare

Top Goalscorer Sule E.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Aberdeen 85 / 100
St. Mirren 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Aberdeen St. Mirren

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Aberdeen Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Aberdeen's goal record stands at 69% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

St. Mirren's defensive record shows goals conceded in 72% of 29 matches.

H2H data points to 3.00 goals as a typical output.

St. Mirren's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

Aberdeen VS St. Mirren
1.75 Goals Scored 1
1 Goals Conceded 2.25
75% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 75%
38% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Aberdeen

(Home)
28 Oct
Aberdeen
0 : 1
Falkirk
24 Oct
Dundee Utd
3 : 2
Aberdeen
17 Oct
Aberdeen
3 : 1
St. Mirren
11 Oct
Aberdeen
0 : 1
St Johnstone
03 Oct
Dunfermline
1 : 4
Aberdeen
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St. Mirren

(Away)
28 Oct
St. Mirren
1 : 1
Hibernian
24 Oct
St. Mirren
2 : 1
Dundee FC
17 Oct
Aberdeen
3 : 1
St. Mirren
10 Oct
Hearts
5 : 0
St. Mirren
19 Sept
St. Mirren
0 : 3
Dundee Utd
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Celtic 11 9 1 1 27:8 28
2 Rangers 11 7 3 1 19:9 24
3 Hearts 11 6 2 3 24:17 20
4 Dundee FC 11 5 2 4 17:13 17
5 Dundee Utd 11 4 4 3 16:16 16
6 Falkirk 11 4 3 4 13:12 15
7 St. Mirren 11 4 2 5 12:19 14
8 St Johnstone 11 3 4 4 13:17 13
9 Aberdeen 11 3 2 6 12:14 11
10 Motherwell 11 2 3 6 13:20 9
11 Hibernian 11 2 2 7 11:17 8
12 Kilmarnock 11 2 2 7 11:26 8
Promotion - Premiership (Championship Group)
Relegation - Premiership (Relegation Group)