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Abergavenny Town vs Cambrian United

Wales Wales

Cymru South 2023/2024
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Abergavenny Town play Cambrian United in the Cymru South 2023/2024. Cambrian United are favorites here. Recently, Abergavenny Town averaged 0.76 goals scored and 2.76 conceded. Cambrian United averaged 2.38 goals scored and 0.84 conceded. In past meetings, Abergavenny Town won 1, Cambrian United won 3, and they drew 0. Their last match on Feb 23, 2024 ended 0:2. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.10 for Abergavenny Town and 1.43 for Cambrian United. This points to a Cambrian United double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

10%
Abergavenny Town
15%
Draws
75%
Cambrian United
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Cambrian United

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Abergavenny Town picked up more points recently compared to Cambrian United.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.10 vs 1.43 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 63%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 86%
Over 2.5 Goals 63%
Over 3.5 Goals 38%
Over 4.5 Goals 19%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 43%
Abergavenny Town Clean Sheet 17%
Cambrian United Clean Sheet 14%
First Half Goal 77%
Second Half Goal 82%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Abergavenny Town Cambrian United
Matches Played 29 32
Wins 3 24
Draws 2 4
Losses 24 4
Goals Scored 0.76 2.38
Goals Conceded 2.76 0.84

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 23, 2024 Cymru South
Abergavenny Town vs Cambrian United
0:2
Feb 17, 2024 Cymru South
Cambrian United vs Abergavenny Town
6:0
Feb 11, 2023 Cymru South
Cambrian United vs Abergavenny Town
1:3
Nov 5, 2022 Cymru South
Abergavenny Town vs Cambrian United
2:4

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Abergavenny Town Compare

Avg xG / game 0
Avg xA / game 0

Cambrian United Compare

Top Goalscorer Eason L.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Abergavenny Town 12 / 100
Cambrian United 70 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Abergavenny Town Cambrian United

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Cambrian United Win (2)
Secondary Pick Cambrian United & Over 2.5
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +400%
50.00
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +10.3%
1.75
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Abergavenny Town attacking → ← attacking Cambrian United

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Abergavenny Town scored in 52% of their last 29 games.

Cambrian United let in goals in 44% of their last 32 matches.

Games between these two average 4.50 goals.

Abergavenny Town went unbeaten in 0 of their last 5 games.

Cambrian United lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

11 Points in last 5 76
0.00 Goals expected (xG) 1.75
0.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.00

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Briton Ferry30232587:3971
2Llanelli30204680:4064
3Ammanford Town30176760:4257
4Cambrian United30148860:3750
5Caerau Ely301541172:6049
6Carmarthen Town301211750:3947
7Afan Lido301441268:5646
8Goytre Utd301271158:5943
9Cwmbran Celtic301261269:6442
10Baglan Dragons301181146:4141
11Trefelin301081247:6338
12Llantwit Major30981344:5435
13Taffs Well30881444:4932
14Pontardawe30881452:7032
15Abertillery Bluebirds30362134:9415
16Abergavenny Town30222620:848