Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Aberystwyth vs Llanelli

Wales Wales

Cymru South
Our Tip

Match Events

43' Event
Owen D.
58' Event
Browne D.
71' Event
Ricketts R.

AI Match Summary

Aberystwyth in this Cymru South matchup, with the score ending 4-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Aberystwyth.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

78%
Aberystwyth
15%
Draws
7%
Llanelli
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Aberystwyth

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

78% / Very High Confidence
  • Aberystwyth have won more games recently than Llanelli.
  • 78% — that's where the model lands on Aberystwyth taking it.
  • Regular Cymru South form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Aberystwyth have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 63%
Over 4.5 Goals 28%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.6%
Aberystwyth Clean Sheet 20%
Llanelli Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Aberystwyth Llanelli
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 16 2
Draws 3 5
Losses 12 23
Goals Scored 1.58 0.63
Goals Conceded 1.42 2.73
Expected Goals (xG) 3.19 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 31, 2026 Cymru South
Aberystwyth vs Llanelli
4:0
Jul 13, 2024 Club Friendly
Aberystwyth vs Llanelli
0:1
Apr 5, 2019 Cymru Premier
Aberystwyth vs Llanelli
3:2
Feb 8, 2019 Cymru Premier
Llanelli vs Aberystwyth
2:4
Oct 26, 2018 Cymru Premier
Llanelli vs Aberystwyth
1:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Aberystwyth Compare

Top Goalscorer Browne D.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Owen D.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.45
Avg xA / game 1.59

Llanelli Compare

Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Aberystwyth 85 / 100
Llanelli 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Aberystwyth Llanelli

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Aberystwyth Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Llanelli has conceded goals in 93% of their last 30 outings.

Historical meetings average 4.00 goals per match.

Aberystwyth scored in 71% of their last 31 games.

Recent resilience: Aberystwyth stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Aberystwyth VS Llanelli
2.38 Goals Scored 0.75
1.25 Goals Conceded 4
75% Over 1.5 100%
75% Over 2.5 88%
63% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Aberystwyth

(Home)
12 Sept
Caerphilly
2 : 3
Aberystwyth
31 Aug
Aberystwyth
4 : 0
Llanelli
28 Aug
Aberystwyth
1 : 0
Pontardawe
22 Aug
Aberystwyth
5 : 1
Llantwit Major
08 Aug
Aberystwyth
1 : 2
Treowen
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Llanelli

(Away)
11 Sept
Caerau Ely
3 : 0
Llanelli
04 Sept
Llanelli
0 : 2
Treowen
31 Aug
Aberystwyth
4 : 0
Llanelli
28 Aug
Llanelli
2 : 2
Carmarthen Town
22 Aug
Cardiff Draconians
4 : 2
Llanelli
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Pure Swansea 6 5 1 0 22:5 16
2 Aberystwyth 6 5 0 1 19:7 15
3 Treowen 7 4 1 2 16:10 13
4 Pontypridd United 6 4 1 1 16:11 13
5 Baglan Dragons 8 4 1 3 8:8 13
6 Carmarthen Town 7 3 2 2 17:16 11
7 Caerau Ely 7 3 1 3 16:17 10
8 Afan Lido 8 3 1 4 13:15 10
9 Trethomas Bluebirds 7 2 3 2 14:13 9
10 Ynyshir Albions 6 2 3 1 6:5 9
11 Caerphilly 7 2 2 3 7:12 8
12 Cardiff Draconians 5 2 1 2 7:8 7
13 Newport City 5 2 0 3 9:5 6
14 Pontardawe 6 1 0 5 5:13 3
15 Llanelli 8 0 2 6 6:23 2
16 Llantwit Major 5 0 1 4 2:15 1
Promotion - Cymru Premier 2027/2028 (Main)