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Stadium Background

AC Milan U23 vs Pavia

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group B 2025/2026 Stadio Felice Chinetti, Solbiate Arno
Our Tip

Match Events

43' Event
Poesio C.

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group B 2025/2026 game between AC Milan U23 and Pavia finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Pavia.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

43%
AC Milan U23
15%
Draws
42%
Pavia
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: AC Milan U23

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

43% / Low Confidence
  • Pavia haven't matched AC Milan U23's recent run of results.
  • 43% — that's where the model lands on AC Milan U23 taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 62.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 33.6%
AC Milan U23 Clean Sheet 68%
Pavia Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric AC Milan U23 Pavia
Matches Played 30 33
Wins 13 9
Draws 6 10
Losses 11 14
Goals Scored 1.87 1.06
Goals Conceded 1.27 1.45
Expected Goals (xG) 1.69 1.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 11, 2026 Serie D - Group B
AC Milan U23 vs Pavia
0:1
Sep 14, 2025 Serie D - Group B
Pavia vs AC Milan U23
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

AC Milan U23 Compare

Avg xG / game 1.3
Avg xA / game 0.84

Pavia Compare

Top Goalscorer Poesio C.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.66

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

AC Milan U23 95 / 100
Pavia 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
AC Milan U23 Pavia

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick AC Milan U23 Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

AC Milan U23 scored in 80% of their last 30 games.

Defensive concern: Pavia conceded in 64% of 33 recent games.

These sides typically produce 2.00 goals when they meet.

Pavia's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

AC Milan U23 VS Pavia
2.63 Goals Scored 1.25
1.13 Goals Conceded 0.75
75% Over 1.5 50%
63% Over 2.5 38%
50% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

AC Milan U23

(Home)
04 Aug
Monza
4 : 2
AC Milan U23
10 May
Chievo
2 : 1
AC Milan U23
03 May
AC Milan U23
10 : 1
Vogherese
26 Apr
Castellanzese
1 : 3
AC Milan U23
19 Apr
AC Milan U23
0 : 1
Varesina
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Pavia

(Away)
25 Jul
Pavia
0 : 4
AlbinoLeffe
19 Jul
Pisa
6 : 1
Pavia
10 May
Breno
0 : 1
Pavia
03 May
Chievo
2 : 1
Pavia
26 Apr
Pavia
3 : 0
Ciserano-Bergamo
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Folgore Caratese 34 19 11 4 58:27 68
2 USD Casatese 34 16 13 5 49:28 61
3 Chievo 34 18 6 10 52:43 60
4 AC Milan U23 34 16 8 10 62:37 56
5 AC Leon 34 14 11 9 44:34 53
6 Brusaporto 34 15 6 13 41:38 51
7 Oltrepo 34 15 8 11 38:36 50
8 Scanzorosciate 34 11 14 9 41:33 47
9 Villa Valle 34 13 8 13 43:46 47
10 Ciserano-Bergamo 34 11 13 10 33:31 46
11 Caldiero Terme 34 10 15 9 50:40 45
12 Real Calepina 34 11 9 14 42:47 42
13 Castellanzese 34 10 11 13 41:39 41
14 Breno 34 9 11 14 39:51 38
15 Pavia 34 9 10 15 36:47 37
16 Varesina 34 7 15 12 38:44 36
17 Sondrio 34 8 7 19 37:64 31
18 Vogherese 34 2 8 24 21:80 -17
Promotion - Serie D - Group B 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group B 2025/2026 (Play Out)