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AC Milan vs Lecce Prediction & H2H Stats

Italy Italy

Serie A Stadio Giuseppe Meazza (San Siro), Milan
Our Tip

Match Events

14' Event
Pulisic C.
Assist: Pavlovic S.
46'
Sub
Stulic N. In: Esteban P.
Out: Stulic N.
58'
Veiga D.

AI Match Summary

The Serie A game between AC Milan and Lecce finished 3-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward AC Milan.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

46%
AC Milan
20%
Draws
34%
Lecce
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: AC Milan

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

46% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and AC Milan come out ahead of Lecce on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans AC Milan's way, sitting at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors AC Milan here — 5 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 38%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.400000000000002%
AC Milan Clean Sheet 68%
Lecce Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric AC Milan Lecce
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 13 11
Draws 8 4
Losses 9 16
Goals Scored 1.37 0.97
Goals Conceded 1.17 1.39
Expected Goals (xG) 1.56 1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 20, 2026 Serie A
AC Milan vs Lecce
3:0
Jan 18, 2026 Serie A
AC Milan vs Lecce
1:0
Sep 23, 2025 Coppa Italia
AC Milan vs Lecce
3:0
Aug 29, 2025 Serie A
Lecce vs AC Milan
0:2
Mar 8, 2025 Serie A
Lecce vs AC Milan
2:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

AC Milan Compare

Top Goalscorer Pulisic C.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Rabiot A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.2
Avg xA / game 0.78

Lecce Compare

Avg xG / game 1.31
Avg xA / game 0.8

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

AC Milan 95 / 100
Lecce 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
AC Milan Lecce

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick AC Milan Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

AC Milan found the back of the net in 73% of recent matches (30 games).

Defensive concern: Lecce conceded in 77% of 31 recent games.

H2H data points to 2.80 goals as a typical output.

AC Milan went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

AC Milan VS Lecce
1.75 Goals Scored 1.38
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.38
100% Over 1.5 63%
63% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

AC Milan

(Home)
20 Sept
AC Milan
3 : 0
Lecce
16 Sept
AC Milan
0 : 2
Benfica
12 Sept
Lazio
2 : 2
AC Milan
06 Sept
Juventus
1 : 1
AC Milan
28 Aug
AC Milan
2 : 0
Venezia
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Lecce

(Away)
20 Sept
AC Milan
3 : 0
Lecce
13 Sept
Lecce
3 : 2
Monza
07 Sept
Cagliari
1 : 0
Lecce
31 Aug
Lecce
0 : 4
AS Roma
23 Aug
Venezia
0 : 2
Lecce
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 AS Roma 5 4 1 0 14:3 13
2 Inter 5 4 1 0 15:8 13
3 Lazio 5 4 1 0 8:3 13
4 Cagliari 5 4 0 1 5:2 12
5 AC Milan 5 3 2 0 10:4 11
6 Frosinone 5 3 1 1 9:4 10
7 Juventus 5 3 1 1 8:4 10
8 Como 5 3 1 1 9:6 10
9 Napoli 5 2 1 2 7:6 7
10 Sassuolo 5 2 1 2 9:9 7
11 Atalanta 5 2 0 3 5:7 6
12 Lecce 5 2 0 3 5:10 6
13 Udinese 5 1 1 3 8:11 4
14 Torino 5 1 1 3 5:8 4
15 Parma 5 1 1 3 4:7 4
16 Monza 5 1 1 3 8:12 4
17 Fiorentina 5 1 1 3 6:12 4
18 Bologna 5 0 2 3 3:6 2
19 Genoa 5 0 1 4 3:10 1
20 Venezia 5 0 0 5 4:13 0
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Serie B 2027/2028 (Main)