Sport Picks

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AC Milan W vs Fiorentina W

Italy Italy

Coppa Italia Women Centro Sportivo Peppino Vismara
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

AC Milan W play Fiorentina W in the Coppa Italia Women. It looks like a close match. Recently, AC Milan W averaged 1.37 goals scored and 1.3 conceded. Fiorentina W averaged 1.43 goals scored and 1.33 conceded. In past meetings, AC Milan W won 1, Fiorentina W won 3, and they drew 1. Their last match on Feb 14, 2026 ended 0:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.31 for AC Milan W and 0.76 for Fiorentina W. This points to a Fiorentina W double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
AC Milan W
21%
Draws
43%
Fiorentina W
Draw rate projection: 21% Favored: Fiorentina W

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

72% / Medium Confidence
  • AC Milan W picked up more points recently compared to Fiorentina W.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.31 vs 0.76 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 68%
Over 2.5 Goals 52%
Over 3.5 Goals 31%
Over 4.5 Goals 16%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 55%
AC Milan W Clean Sheet 27%
Fiorentina W Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 61%
Second Half Goal 65%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric AC Milan W Fiorentina W
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 12 14
Draws 6 7
Losses 12 9
Goals Scored 1.37 1.43
Goals Conceded 1.3 1.33
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.63 1.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 14, 2026 Serie A Women
AC Milan W vs Fiorentina W
0:1
Jan 29, 2026 Coppa Italia Women
Fiorentina W vs AC Milan W
1:0
Jan 20, 2026 Coppa Italia Women
AC Milan W vs Fiorentina W
1:1
Oct 18, 2025 Serie A Women
Fiorentina W vs AC Milan W
4:3
Apr 12, 2025 Serie A Women
AC Milan W vs Fiorentina W
5:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

AC Milan W Compare

Top Goalscorer Arrigoni G.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Fiorentina W Compare

Top Goalscorer Woldvik E.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

AC Milan W 38 / 100
Fiorentina W 41 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
AC Milan W Fiorentina W

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Fiorentina W or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +28.5%
3.57
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +12.8%
2.17
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

AC Milan W attacking → ← attacking Fiorentina W

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

AC Milan W scored in 63% of their last 30 games.

Fiorentina W let in goals in 77% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 3.80 goals.

AC Milan W went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Fiorentina W lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

42 Points in last 5 49
1.13 Goals expected (xG) 0.88
0.63 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.50