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Academia vs Gremio Sorriso

Brazil Brazil

Campeonato Matogrossense 2022
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AI Match Summary

This Campeonato Matogrossense 2022 encounter between Academia and Gremio Sorriso promises to be a closely contested affair, with win probabilities pointing to an even matchup. Academia averages 0.9 goals scored and 1.4 conceded in recent matches. Gremio Sorriso shows a form average of 0.9 goals scored and 1.5 conceded. Given their contrasting recent form profiles, this matchup is expected to produce a balanced tactical flow. Historical head-to-head records show 1 wins for Academia, 0 wins for Gremio Sorriso, and 0 draws in their recent direct meetings. Their last direct encounter on 06.02.22 ended in a 1:0 scoreline. Our model projects an expected goals (xG) output of 1.06 for Academia and 1.31 for Gremio Sorriso, suggesting the primary value lies in the Academia double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

46%
Academia
21%
Draws
33%
Gremio Sorriso
Draw rate projection: 21% Favored: Academia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

75% / High Confidence
  • Academia picked up more points recently compared to Gremio Sorriso.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.06 vs 1.31 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 65%
Over 2.5 Goals 39%
Over 3.5 Goals 23%
Over 4.5 Goals 12%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 40%
Academia Clean Sheet 18%
Gremio Sorriso Clean Sheet 14%
First Half Goal 59%
Second Half Goal 62%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Academia Gremio Sorriso
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 8 6
Draws 3 10
Losses 20 14
Goals Scored 0.9 0.93
Goals Conceded 1.45 1.5
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.63 1.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

06.02.22 Matogrossense
Academia vs Gremio Sorriso
1:0

Tactical Matchup Profile

Field Positions & Control Styles

Academia

Pressing Intensity Medium Block
Attacking Style Quick counter-attacks
Wing Attack Frequency Play through the middle
Defensive Alignment Push high up (Offside trap)
Detailed strengths & weaknesses require tactical scouting logs (Data Unavailable).

Gremio Sorriso

Pressing Intensity Medium Block
Attacking Style Quick counter-attacks
Wing Attack Frequency Play through the middle
Defensive Alignment Push high up (Offside trap)
Detailed strengths & weaknesses require tactical scouting logs (Data Unavailable).

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Academia 45 / 100
Gremio Sorriso 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Academia Gremio Sorriso

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Academia or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +21%
2.63
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +18.2%
3.03
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Expected Match Flow Timeline

Dominance and pressure projections by 15-minute intervals

0' - 15' Dominance Index

Both sides are expected to start cautiously, looking to control the midfield battle.

Academia 51%
Gremio Sorriso 26%
15' - 30' Dominance Index

The game is expected to settle into a tactical block, with both managers looking for space on the flanks.

Academia 44%
Gremio Sorriso 35%
30' - 45' Dominance Index

The tempo could accelerate as both teams push for an opening goal before half-time.

Academia 46%
Gremio Sorriso 33%
45' - 60' Dominance Index

Expect tactical adjustments from both sides, possibly shifting to a wider play style.

Academia 48%
Gremio Sorriso 31%
60' - 75' Dominance Index

As players tire, spaces will open up, leading to transitional counter-attacks for both teams.

Academia 41%
Gremio Sorriso 36%
75' - 90' Dominance Index

A high-risk final phase where any defensive lapse could lead to late drama and decide the match.

Academia 53%
Gremio Sorriso 38%

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Academia attacking → ← attacking Gremio Sorriso

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Academia have found the net in 52% of their last 31 matches.

Gremio Sorriso have conceded at least one goal in 80% of their last 30 fixtures.

Historical meetings between these sides average 1.00 goals per match.

Academia remained undefeated in 0 of their last 5 overall matchups.

Gremio Sorriso suffered defeat in 3 of their last 5 overall games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Moderate
Risk Factor

Fatigue: Match timing requires careful team selection; potential roster adjustments may affect consistency.

Risk Factor

Standard league campaign fixture. Both teams have strong incentives to secure maximum points for table positioning.

Risk Factor

Match Intensity: High stakes fixture where discipline and tactical patience will be crucial factors.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

27 Points in last 5 28
1.13 Goals expected (xG) 1.00
1.63 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.00

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Cuiaba971123:622
2Luverdense962113:320
3Sport Sinop953112:818
4Academia94145:1113
5Dom Bosco93429:1113
6Uniao Rondonopolis940510:1112
7Nova Mutum EC933310:912
8Operario VG931511:1210
9Gremio Sorriso91175:184
10Acao90279:182