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Stadium Background

Academia vs Nova Mutum EC

Brazil Brazil

Copa FMF (Mato Grosso) 2024
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Copa FMF (Mato Grosso) 2024 tie, finishing 1-1. Extra time or penalties follow.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

0%
Academia
15%
Draws
85%
Nova Mutum EC
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Nova Mutum EC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

85% / Very High Confidence
  • Nova Mutum EC have won more games recently than Academia.
  • Win probability leans Nova Mutum EC's way, sitting at 70%.
  • Nova Mutum EC arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Academia, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69%
Academia Clean Sheet 18%
Nova Mutum EC Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Academia Nova Mutum EC
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 7 13
Draws 3 7
Losses 20 11
Goals Scored 0.9 1.23
Goals Conceded 1.5 1.48
Expected Goals (xG) 1.44 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 11, 2025 Matogrossense
Nova Mutum EC vs Academia
1:0
Oct 26, 2024 Copa FMF (Mato Grosso)
Nova Mutum EC vs Academia
1:0
Oct 19, 2024 Copa FMF (Mato Grosso)
Academia vs Nova Mutum EC
1:1
Oct 12, 2024 Copa FMF (Mato Grosso)
Nova Mutum EC vs Academia
1:0
Feb 10, 2024 Matogrossense
Academia vs Nova Mutum EC
2:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Academia 15 / 100
Nova Mutum EC 65 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Academia Nova Mutum EC

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Nova Mutum EC Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Nova Mutum EC's defensive record shows goals conceded in 65% of 31 matches.

These sides typically produce 1.60 goals when they meet.

Academia's goal record stands at 50% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Nova Mutum EC lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Academia VS Nova Mutum EC
0.25 Goals Scored 0.88
1.75 Goals Conceded 2.63
50% Over 1.5 88%
25% Over 2.5 75%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Academia

(Home)
22 Feb
Academia
0 : 1
Luverdense
15 Feb
Sport Sinop
2 : 0
Academia
08 Feb
Mixto
3 : 1
Academia
02 Feb
Academia
0 : 1
Cuiaba
29 Jan
Academia
0 : 1
Primavera AC
Page 1 of 6

Nova Mutum EC

(Away)
11 Feb
Operario VG
3 : 2
Nova Mutum EC
08 Feb
Nova Mutum EC
2 : 1
Mixto
05 Feb
Várzea Grande EC
1 : 3
Nova Mutum EC
31 Jan
Cuiaba
2 : 1
Nova Mutum EC
28 Jan
Nova Mutum EC
3 : 2
Chapada
Page 1 of 7

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
Nova Mutum EC 2
Academia 1
Operario VG 4
Mixto 3
Final
Nova Mutum EC 0
Operario VG 1