Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Academica vs Trofense

Portugal Portugal

Liga 3 2025/2026 Estadio EFAPEL Cidade de Coimbra, Coimbra
Our Tip

Match Events

19'
Borges F.
21' Event
Silva L.
(Penalty)
25' Event
Baixinho M.
Assist: Silva L.

AI Match Summary

The Liga 3 2025/2026 game between Academica and Trofense finished 3-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Academica.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
Academica
15%
Draws
34%
Trofense
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Academica

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Academica come out ahead of Trofense on wins alone.
  • Academica are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.8%
Academica Clean Sheet 68%
Trofense Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Academica Trofense
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 14 6
Draws 5 9
Losses 10 15
Goals Scored 1.45 0.67
Goals Conceded 1.31 1.23
Expected Goals (xG) 1.69 0.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 16, 2026 Liga 3
Academica vs Trofense
3:0
Mar 22, 2026 Liga 3
Trofense vs Academica
1:2
Jul 27, 2024 Club Friendly
Trofense vs Academica
1:1
May 8, 2022 Liga Portugal 2
Trofense vs Academica
2:1
Dec 28, 2021 Liga Portugal 2
Academica vs Trofense
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Academica Compare

Top Goalscorer Baixinho M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Marcos Paulo
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.3
Avg xA / game 0.84

Trofense Compare

Avg xG / game 0.63
Avg xA / game 0.38

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Academica 95 / 100
Trofense 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Academica Trofense

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Academica Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Academica scored in 76% of their last 29 outings.

Trofense let in goals in 77% of their last 30 matches.

H2H data points to 2.60 goals as a typical output.

Away concern: Trofense has suffered 3 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Academica VS Trofense
1.63 Goals Scored 0.5
0.88 Goals Conceded 1.75
63% Over 1.5 50%
50% Over 2.5 25%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Academica

(Home)
18 Sept
Real SC
1 : 4
Academica
11 Sept
Academica
0 : 3
Benfica B
05 Sept
Penafiel
4 : 1
Academica
29 Aug
Academica
0 : 2
Lusitania FC
21 Aug
Tondela
0 : 2
Academica
Page 1 of 6

Trofense

(Away)
12 Sept
Trofense
1 : 4
Leca
05 Sept
Vitoria Guimaraes B
0 : 0
Trofense
29 Aug
Varzim
5 : 1
Trofense
22 Aug
Trofense
1 : 0
Sao Joao de Ver
15 Aug
SC Vianense
2 : 0
Trofense
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Amarante FC 14 9 4 1 22:11 31
2 Academica 14 8 4 2 23:13 28
3 CF Os Belenenses 14 7 5 2 25:16 26
4 Mafra 14 5 2 7 17:24 17
5 Vitoria Guimaraes B 14 4 5 5 16:17 17
6 Varzim 14 4 2 8 13:19 14
7 Santarem 14 2 4 8 13:20 10
8 Trofense 14 2 4 8 7:16 10
Promotion - Liga Portugal 2 (Main)
Promotion - Liga Portugal 2 2025/2026 (Relegation)