Sport Picks

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Academica vs Trofense

Portugal Portugal

Liga 3 2025/2026 Estadio EFAPEL Cidade de Coimbra, Coimbra
Our Tip

Match Events

19'
Borges F.
21' Event
Silva L.
(Penalty)
25' Event
Baixinho M.
Assist: Silva L.

AI Match Summary

The Liga 3 2025/2026 game between Academica and Trofense finished 3-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Academica.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

37%
Academica
35%
Draws
28%
Trofense
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Academica

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

37% / Very High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Academica come out ahead of Trofense on wins alone.
  • Academica are the model's pick here, at 70%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 59%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34.400000000000006%
Academica Clean Sheet 68%
Trofense Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Academica Trofense
Matches Played 28 30
Wins 13 7
Draws 8 10
Losses 7 13
Goals Scored 1.25 0.29
Goals Conceded 1.63 1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 0.29
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.63 1.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 16, 2026 Liga 3
Academica vs Trofense
3:0
Mar 22, 2026 Liga 3
Trofense vs Academica
1:2
Jul 27, 2024 Club Friendly
Trofense vs Academica
1:1
May 8, 2022 Liga Portugal 2
Trofense vs Academica
2:1
Dec 28, 2021 Liga Portugal 2
Academica vs Trofense
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Academica Compare

Top Goalscorer Baixinho M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Marcos Paulo
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Trofense Compare

Avg xG / game 0.26
Avg xA / game 0.16

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Academica 77 / 100
Trofense 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Academica Trofense

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick ACA Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Academica scored in 82% of their last 28 outings.

Trofense let in goals in 83% of their last 30 matches.

H2H data points to 2.60 goals as a typical output.

Solid form: Academica remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Academica VS Trofense
1.25 Goals Scored 0.29
1.63 Goals Conceded 1
75% Over 1.5 43%
50% Over 2.5 14%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Academica

(Home)
01 Aug
Caldas SC
3 : 2
Academica
31 Jul
Santarem
0 : 0
Academica
25 Jul
FC Porto B
1 : 3
Academica
22 Jul
Tondela
2 : 1
Academica
18 Jul
Vitoria Guimaraes
2 : 0
Academica
Page 1 of 6

Trofense

(Away)
01 Aug
Trofense
0 : 1
SC Salgueiros
31 Jul
AFS
1 : 1
Trofense
16 May
Academica
3 : 0
Trofense
09 May
Trofense
1 : 1
Vitoria Guimaraes B
01 May
Trofense
0 : 0
Amarante FC
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Amarante FC 14 9 4 1 22:11 31
2 Academica 14 8 4 2 23:13 28
3 CF Os Belenenses 14 7 5 2 25:16 26
4 Mafra 14 5 2 7 17:24 17
5 Vitoria Guimaraes B 14 4 5 5 16:17 17
6 Varzim 14 4 2 8 13:19 14
7 Santarem 14 2 4 8 13:20 10
8 Trofense 14 2 4 8 7:16 10
Promotion - Liga Portugal 2 (Main)
Promotion - Liga Portugal 2 2025/2026 (Relegation)