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ACR Messina vs Igea Virtus Prediction & H2H Stats

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group I 2025/2026 Stadio San Filippo, Messina
Our Tip

Match Events

64' Event
Saverino F.

AI Match Summary

ACR Messina in this Serie D - Group I 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored ACR Messina.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
ACR Messina
35%
Draws
34%
Igea Virtus
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

34% / Low Confidence
  • ACR Messina haven't matched Igea Virtus's recent run of results.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 44%.
  • Regular Serie D - Group I 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.8%
ACR Messina Clean Sheet 22%
Igea Virtus Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric ACR Messina Igea Virtus
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 9 12
Draws 12 11
Losses 9 6
Goals Scored 0.77 1.41
Goals Conceded 0.97 1.14
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 26, 2026 Serie D - Group I
Igea Virtus vs ACR Messina
1:1
Dec 14, 2025 Serie D - Group I
ACR Messina vs Igea Virtus
1:0
Jan 13, 2019 Serie D - Group I
ACR Messina vs Igea Virtus
3:0
Sep 23, 2018 Serie D - Group I
Igea Virtus vs ACR Messina
3:0
Mar 25, 2018 Serie D - Group I
Igea Virtus vs ACR Messina
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

ACR Messina Compare

Top Goalscorer Saverino F.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.66

Igea Virtus Compare

Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.59

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

ACR Messina 37 / 100
Igea Virtus 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
ACR Messina Igea Virtus

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Igea Virtus Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

ACR Messina went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

ACR Messina found the back of the net in 63% of recent matches (30 games).

Defensive concern: Igea Virtus conceded in 66% of 29 recent games.

H2H data points to 1.80 goals as a typical output.

Scoring Trends

ACR Messina VS Igea Virtus
0.63 Goals Scored 1.38
0.75 Goals Conceded 2
50% Over 1.5 88%
13% Over 2.5 63%
0% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

ACR Messina

(Home)
10 May
USD Ragusa
0 : 0
ACR Messina
03 May
ACR Messina
1 : 0
Milazzo
26 Apr
Igea Virtus
1 : 1
ACR Messina
19 Apr
Lamezia
1 : 1
ACR Messina
12 Apr
ACR Messina
1 : 0
USD Ragusa
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Igea Virtus

(Away)
27 Sept
Reggina
2 : 0
Igea Virtus
20 Sept
Trapani
1 : 3
Igea Virtus
16 Sept
Igea Virtus
4 : 3
Vibonese
12 Sept
Lamezia
2 : 2
Igea Virtus
06 Sept
Igea Virtus
4 : 2
Calcio Avola
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 A.C. Savoia 34 20 9 5 63:29 69
2 Nissa 34 19 10 5 51:27 67
3 Reggina 34 20 6 8 44:23 66
4 Athletic Palermo 34 18 6 10 59:47 60
5 Gelbison 34 17 9 8 44:32 60
6 Sambiase 34 14 11 9 38:30 53
7 Igea Virtus 34 15 13 6 49:36 53
8 Milazzo 34 12 8 14 31:36 44
9 Gela 34 13 5 16 41:44 43
10 Lamezia 34 11 9 14 43:35 42
11 Castrumfavara 34 10 8 16 38:47 38
12 Enna 34 8 12 14 50:53 36
13 Vibonese 34 8 11 15 32:47 35
14 USD Ragusa 34 7 13 14 23:34 34
15 ACR Messina 34 11 13 10 28:33 32
16 AS Acireale 34 7 12 15 37:50 32
17 Sancataldese 34 7 8 19 31:49 29
18 Paterno 34 4 7 23 22:72 19
Promotion - Serie D - Group I 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group I 2025/2026 (Play Out)