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AD Ceuta vs Malaga

Spain Spain

LaLiga2 2025/2026 Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube, Ceuta
Our Tip

Match Events

4' Event
Munoz J.
Assist: Chupe
13' Event
Chupe
Assist: Rodriguez R.
34'
Lachhab Didi Y.

AI Match Summary

The LaLiga2 2025/2026 game between AD Ceuta and Malaga finished 1-4, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Malaga.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

42%
AD Ceuta
20%
Draws
38%
Malaga
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: AD Ceuta

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

42% / Low Confidence
  • Malaga carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • Regular LaLiga2 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 78.2%
AD Ceuta Clean Sheet 17%
Malaga Clean Sheet 16%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric AD Ceuta Malaga
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 12 15
Draws 6 9
Losses 11 5
Goals Scored 1.34 2.03
Goals Conceded 1.62 1.31
Expected Goals (xG) 0.94 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 16, 2026 LaLiga2
AD Ceuta vs Malaga
1:4
Jan 11, 2026 LaLiga2
Malaga vs AD Ceuta
2:1
Apr 7, 2024 Primera RFEF - Group 2
Malaga vs AD Ceuta
1:1
Jan 14, 2024 Primera RFEF - Group 2
AD Ceuta vs Malaga
3:2
Oct 8, 2003 Copa del Rey
AD Ceuta vs Malaga
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

AD Ceuta Compare

Avg xG / game 0.72
Avg xA / game 0.47

Malaga Compare

Top Goalscorer Chupe
2 Goals
Assists Leader Munoz J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

AD Ceuta 30 / 100
Malaga 31 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
AD Ceuta Malaga

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick CEU Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 3.20 goals as a typical output.

AD Ceuta found the back of the net in 76% of recent matches (29 games).

Malaga's defensive record shows goals conceded in 69% of 29 matches.

AD Ceuta has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

AD Ceuta VS Malaga
1.25 Goals Scored 1.63
1.13 Goals Conceded 0.63
63% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

AD Ceuta

(Home)
07 Aug
AD Ceuta
2 : 1
Malaga
29 Jul
Cadiz
1 : 3
AD Ceuta
26 Jul
Sevilla
2 : 1
AD Ceuta
22 Jul
Torremolinos
1 : 0
AD Ceuta
30 May
AD Ceuta
1 : 0
Albacete
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Malaga

(Away)
07 Aug
AD Ceuta
2 : 1
Malaga
06 Aug
Malaga
4 : 2
Al Arabi (Qatar)
30 Jul
Malaga
2 : 2
Al Ittihad
25 Jul
Malaga
3 : 3
Leicester
20 Jun
Almeria
1 : 2
Malaga
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Racing Santander 42 25 7 10 90:61 82
2 Dep. A Coruna 42 22 11 9 65:44 77
3 Almeria 42 22 8 12 81:63 74
4 Malaga 42 21 10 11 75:52 73
5 Las Palmas 42 20 13 9 57:40 73
6 Castellon 42 20 12 10 70:51 72
7 Burgos CF 42 20 12 10 48:33 72
8 Eibar 42 19 10 13 52:40 67
9 Cordoba 42 17 10 15 57:61 61
10 Gijon 42 18 7 17 60:54 61
11 AD Ceuta 42 17 10 15 51:63 61
12 Albacete 42 16 11 15 56:55 59
13 FC Andorra 42 16 10 16 62:54 58
14 Granada CF 42 12 12 18 50:56 48
15 Real Sociedad B 42 12 11 19 52:61 47
16 Leganes 42 11 13 18 43:51 46
17 Valladolid 42 12 10 20 44:57 46
18 Cadiz 42 11 10 21 41:61 43
19 Mirandes 42 10 10 22 47:69 40
20 Huesca 42 9 11 22 41:63 38
21 Leonesa 42 9 10 23 39:68 37
22 Zaragoza 42 8 12 22 35:59 36
Promotion - LaLiga (Main)
Promotion - LaLiga2 2025/2026 (Promotion - Play Offs)