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Libertad Asuncion vs San Lorenzo - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Paraguay Paraguay

Copa de Primera Estadio Tigo La Huerta, Asunción
Libertad Asuncion Logo

Libertad Asuncion

1 - 0
FT
San Lorenzo Logo

San Lorenzo

Our Tip

Match Events

51' Event
Fernandez M.
Assist: Gimenez N.
58'
Paredes T.
61'
Sub
Fernandez M. In: Villalba R.
Out: Fernandez M.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 1-0. This leg finished 1-0.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

41%
Libertad Asuncion
35%
Draws
24%
San Lorenzo
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Libertad Asuncion

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence
  • Libertad Asuncion have won more games recently than San Lorenzo.
  • Model gives Libertad Asuncion a 42% chance of winning this.
  • Libertad Asuncion have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Libertad Asuncion, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Libertad Asuncion have taken 5 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.2%
Libertad Asuncion Clean Sheet 20%
San Lorenzo Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Libertad Asuncion San Lorenzo
Matches Played 30 28
Wins 14 5
Draws 4 7
Losses 12 16
Goals Scored 1.43 0.61
Goals Conceded 1.33 1.5
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 24, 2026 Copa de Primera
Libertad Asuncion vs San Lorenzo
1:0
May 1, 2026 Copa de Primera
Libertad Asuncion vs San Lorenzo
5:0
Mar 2, 2026 Copa de Primera
San Lorenzo vs Libertad Asuncion
0:7
Sep 20, 2023 Copa Paraguay
San Lorenzo vs Libertad Asuncion
1:2
Jul 27, 2022 Copa Paraguay
San Lorenzo vs Libertad Asuncion
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Libertad Asuncion Compare

Top Goalscorer Fernandez M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

San Lorenzo Compare

Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Libertad Asuncion 42 / 100
San Lorenzo 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Libertad Asuncion San Lorenzo

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Games between these two average 3.80 goals.

Attacking prowess: Libertad Asuncion scored in 73% of their last 30 outings.

San Lorenzo's defensive record shows goals conceded in 79% of 28 matches.

Libertad Asuncion went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Libertad Asuncion VS San Lorenzo
1.5 Goals Scored 0.75
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.5
88% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Libertad Asuncion

(Home)
05 Oct
Recoleta
1 : 2
Libertad Asuncion
28 Sept
Libertad Asuncion
0 : 1
Olimpia Asuncion
23 Sept
Fernando de la Mora
1 : 2
Libertad Asuncion
19 Sept
Libertad Asuncion
1 : 1
Sportivo Ameliano
11 Sept
2 de Mayo
0 : 2
Libertad Asuncion
Page 1 of 6

San Lorenzo

(Away)
10 Oct
San Lorenzo
1 : 1
Sportivo Trinidense
03 Oct
Guarani
1 : 1
San Lorenzo
28 Sept
San Lorenzo
0 : 0
Recoleta
23 Sept
San Lorenzo
2 : 1
4 de Mayo
20 Sept
San Lorenzo
0 : 3
Olimpia Asuncion
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Olimpia Asuncion 13 8 2 3 22:10 26
2 Libertad Asuncion 13 8 2 3 21:14 26
3 2 de Mayo 13 7 4 2 16:13 25
4 Sportivo Trinidense 14 7 3 4 24:14 24
5 Nacional Asuncion 13 6 5 2 20:8 23
6 Guarani 13 5 6 2 14:10 21
7 Cerro Porteno 14 6 2 6 18:14 20
8 Sportivo Ameliano 13 4 6 3 15:15 18
9 Sp. Luqueno 14 4 1 9 14:27 13
10 Rubio Nu 13 3 3 7 15:24 12
11 Recoleta 13 2 2 9 14:26 8
12 San Lorenzo 14 0 4 10 5:23 4
Promotion - Copa Libertadores 2027 (Group Stage)