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AD Llerenense vs Guadiana Prediction & H2H Stats

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Tercera RFEF - Group 14
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Match Events

42' Event
Marr T.

AI Match Summary

The Tercera RFEF - Group 14 game between AD Llerenense and Guadiana finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward AD Llerenense.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

71%
AD Llerenense
22%
Draws
7%
Guadiana
Draw rate projection: 22% Favored: AD Llerenense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

71% / High Confidence
  • AD Llerenense carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 71% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Regular Tercera RFEF - Group 14 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 22.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.6%
AD Llerenense Clean Sheet 20%
Guadiana Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric AD Llerenense Guadiana
Matches Played 29 4
Wins 11 0
Draws 8 1
Losses 10 3
Goals Scored 1.03 0.5
Goals Conceded 1.21 1.75
Expected Goals (xG) 1.01 1.20
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 6, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
AD Llerenense vs Guadiana
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

AD Llerenense Compare

Top Goalscorer Marr T.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.78
Avg xA / game 0.51

Guadiana Compare

Avg xG / game 1.09
Avg xA / game 0.67

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

AD Llerenense 31 / 100
Guadiana 31 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
AD Llerenense Guadiana

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick AD Llerenense Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Guadiana conceded in 100% of 4 recent games.

Recent resilience: AD Llerenense stayed unbeaten in 5 of the last 5 games.

Attacking prowess: AD Llerenense scored in 72% of their last 29 outings.

Difficult form: Guadiana registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

AD Llerenense VS Guadiana
0.63 Goals Scored 0.4
2 Goals Conceded 1.4
88% Over 1.5 60%
50% Over 2.5 20%
25% Over 3.5 20%

Recent Form & Match History

AD Llerenense

(Home)
27 Sept
CD Zafra
0 : 0
AD Llerenense
19 Sept
AD Llerenense
1 : 0
Jaraiz
13 Sept
Villanovense
0 : 1
AD Llerenense
06 Sept
AD Llerenense
1 : 0
Guadiana
09 May
AD Llerenense
3 : 1
CD Calamonte
Page 1 of 6

Guadiana

(Away)
27 Sept
Guadiana
1 : 1
Cabeza del Buey
20 Sept
Montijo
3 : 1
Guadiana
12 Sept
Guadiana
0 : 2
SP Villafranca
06 Sept
AD Llerenense
1 : 0
Guadiana

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 CD Azuaga 4 4 0 0 10:2 12
2 Moralo 4 3 1 0 8:4 10
3 AD Llerenense 4 3 1 0 3:0 10
4 Castuera 4 3 0 1 8:3 9
5 Puebla de la Calzada 4 2 1 1 8:4 7
6 CD Zafra 4 2 1 1 5:3 7
7 Gevora 4 2 1 1 7:8 7
8 Santa Amalia 4 1 3 0 5:2 6
9 Villanovense 4 2 0 2 4:3 6
10 Cabeza del Buey 4 1 1 2 5:5 4
11 Jaraiz 4 1 1 2 6:7 4
12 Jerez CF 4 1 1 2 4:6 4
13 Quintana 4 1 1 2 2:5 4
14 SP Villafranca 4 1 0 3 4:7 3
15 Montijo 4 1 0 3 4:8 3
16 Pueblonuevo 4 0 2 2 5:10 2
17 Guadiana 4 0 1 3 2:7 1
18 UP Plasencia 4 0 1 3 2:8 1
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 14 (Play Offs)