Sport Picks

Stadium Background

AD Marco 09 vs AD Fafe

Portugal Portugal

Liga 3 Municipal de Marco de Canaveses
Our Tip

Match Events

33'
Silva D.
39'
Sub
Pacheco F. In: Matos T.
Out: Pacheco F.
42' Event
Mauro Ribeiro

AI Match Summary

AD Marco 09 host AD Fafe in the Liga 3. Don't expect fireworks — both sides lean defensive. AD Marco 09 have averaged 0.75 scored and 0.63 conceded recently, against AD Fafe's 1 scored and 1.13 conceded. Past meetings favor AD Marco 09 slightly — 1-0-3 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Apr 18, 2026, ending 1:0. The numbers (0.94 xG vs 0.81) point toward AD Fafe. Under markets carry more value than backing a winner outright.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

50%
AD Marco 09
28%
Draws
22%
AD Fafe
Draw rate projection: 28% Favored: AD Marco 09

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

76% / High Confidence
  • AD Fafe has accumulated more wins in recent fixtures compared to AD Marco 09.
  • Model forecasts a 50% win probability edge for AD Marco 09.
  • League standings and seasonal metrics in Liga 3 provide steady trend data.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 50%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 22%
AD Marco 09 Clean Sheet 68%
AD Fafe Clean Sheet 16%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric AD Marco 09 AD Fafe
Matches Played 29 31
Wins 9 15
Draws 10 8
Losses 10 8
Goals Scored 0.75 1
Goals Conceded 0.63 1.13
Expected Goals (xG) 0.75 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.63 1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 18, 2026 Liga 3
AD Marco 09 vs AD Fafe
1:0
Mar 15, 2026 Liga 3
AD Fafe vs AD Marco 09
1:1
Dec 7, 2025 Liga 3
AD Marco 09 vs AD Fafe
1:1
Aug 24, 2025 Liga 3
AD Fafe vs AD Marco 09
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

AD Marco 09 Compare

Top Goalscorer Mauro Ribeiro
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.58
Avg xA / game 0.38

AD Fafe Compare

Top Goalscorer Batista J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

AD Marco 09 59 / 100
AD Fafe 23 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
AD Marco 09 AD Fafe

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick AD Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

AD Marco 09 scored in 66% of their last 29 games.

AD Fafe let in goals in 61% of their last 31 matches.

Games between these two average 1.25 goals.

AD Marco 09 went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

AD Fafe lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

AD Marco 09 VS AD Fafe
0.75 Goals Scored 1
0.63 Goals Conceded 1.13
50% Over 1.5 50%
13% Over 2.5 25%
0% Over 3.5 25%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Vitoria Guimaraes B1885520:1629
2Amarante FC1885519:1729
3Trofense1877423:1528
4Varzim1877426:1728
5Paredes1869322:1227
6Braga B1867516:1725
7AD Fafe1866623:2124
8AD Marco 091847715:2219
9Sao Joao de Ver1828811:2614
10Sanjoanense1827920:3213
PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1CF Os Belenenses18122427:1638
2Mafra1897228:1934
3Academica1877429:1828
4Santarem1867515:1425
5Atletico CP1864816:1722
6Lusitano GC1864819:1922
7Amora1856719:2221
8Caldas SC1863917:2321
91º Dezembro1838713:2117
10Covilha1828810:2414