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Stadium Background

AD Marco 09 vs Sao Joao de Ver

Portugal Portugal

Liga 3 2025/2026 Municipal de Marco de Canaveses, Marco de Canaveses
Our Tip

Match Events

12'
Vilela M.
20'
Sub
Gabriel E. In: Jota
Out: Gabriel E.
37' Event
Rai Nascimento

AI Match Summary

The Liga 3 2025/2026 game between AD Marco 09 and Sao Joao de Ver finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward AD Marco 09.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
AD Marco 09
40%
Draws
29%
Sao Joao de Ver
Draw rate projection: 40% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

66% / Medium Confidence
  • Sao Joao de Ver's 1.13 goals per match outpaces what AD Marco 09 have produced (0.75).
  • Model puts this one close, with a 40% draw probability.
  • Regular Liga 3 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 30%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69%
AD Marco 09 Clean Sheet 20%
Sao Joao de Ver Clean Sheet 20%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric AD Marco 09 Sao Joao de Ver
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 9 9
Draws 10 11
Losses 11 9
Goals Scored 0.75 1.13
Goals Conceded 0.63 0.63
Expected Goals (xG) 0.75 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.63 0.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 12, 2026 Liga 3
Sao Joao de Ver vs AD Marco 09
0:0
Mar 1, 2026 Liga 3
AD Marco 09 vs Sao Joao de Ver
2:1
Dec 21, 2025 Liga 3
AD Marco 09 vs Sao Joao de Ver
2:1
Sep 24, 2025 Liga 3
Sao Joao de Ver vs AD Marco 09
0:0
Feb 11, 2024 Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
AD Marco 09 vs Sao Joao de Ver
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

AD Marco 09 Compare

Top Goalscorer Nandinho
1 Goals
Assists Leader Erivaldo
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.58
Avg xA / game 0.38

Sao Joao de Ver Compare

Top Goalscorer Rai Nascimento
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

AD Marco 09 32 / 100
Sao Joao de Ver 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
AD Marco 09 Sao Joao de Ver

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

AD Marco 09 scored in 63% of their last 30 games.

Sao Joao de Ver's defensive record shows goals conceded in 69% of 29 matches.

AD Marco 09 has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

These sides typically produce 1.20 goals when they meet.

Scoring Trends

AD Marco 09 VS Sao Joao de Ver
0.75 Goals Scored 1.13
0.63 Goals Conceded 0.63
50% Over 1.5 50%
13% Over 2.5 38%
0% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

AD Marco 09

(Home)
15 Jul
Leiria
2 : 0
AD Marco 09
03 May
Paredes
2 : 2
AD Marco 09
26 Apr
AD Marco 09
1 : 0
Braga B
18 Apr
AD Marco 09
1 : 0
AD Fafe
12 Apr
Sao Joao de Ver
0 : 0
AD Marco 09
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Sao Joao de Ver

(Away)
18 Jul
Uniao Lamas
0 : 1
Sao Joao de Ver
03 Jul
Braga
1 : 0
Sao Joao de Ver
03 May
Sao Joao de Ver
2 : 1
Sanjoanense
28 Apr
AD Fafe
1 : 2
Sao Joao de Ver
18 Apr
Paredes
0 : 0
Sao Joao de Ver
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