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AD Merida vs Al Nassr

World World

Club Friendly
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Al Nassr in this Club Friendly matchup, with the score ending 0-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Al Nassr.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

29%
AD Merida
20%
Draws
51%
Al Nassr
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Al Nassr

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

20% / Low Confidence
  • AD Merida haven't matched Al Nassr's recent run of results.
  • AD Merida are the model's pick here, at 42%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.2%
AD Merida Clean Sheet 11%
Al Nassr Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric AD Merida Al Nassr
Matches Played 31 29
Wins 11 20
Draws 7 2
Losses 13 7
Goals Scored 1.16 2.48
Goals Conceded 1.42 1.1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 28, 2026 Club Friendly
AD Merida vs Al Nassr
0:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

AD Merida 40 / 100
Al Nassr 37 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
AD Merida Al Nassr

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: AD Merida scored in 68% of their last 31 outings.

Defensive concern: Al Nassr conceded in 62% of 29 recent games.

These sides typically produce 2.00 goals when they meet.

Solid form: AD Merida remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

AD Merida VS Al Nassr
0.75 Goals Scored 2.38
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.5
38% Over 1.5 100%
38% Over 2.5 88%
13% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

AD Merida

(Home)
19 Sept
Ponferradina
1 : 0
AD Merida
12 Sept
AD Merida
3 : 4
Mirandes
06 Sept
Leonesa
1 : 0
AD Merida
29 Aug
AD Merida
1 : 0
Deportivo Fabril
22 Aug
AD Merida
0 : 0
Recreativo Huelva
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Al Nassr

(Away)
15 Sept
Al Ain
4 : 0
Al Nassr
12 Sept
Al Khaleej
1 : 1
Al Nassr
09 Sept
Al Nassr
2 : 1
Abha
05 Sept
Al Ittihad
2 : 1
Al Nassr
28 Aug
Al Nassr
2 : 1
Al Taawon
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