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AD Merida vs Deportivo Fabril Prediction & H2H Stats

Spain Spain

Primera RFEF - Group 1 Estadio Romano Jose Fouto, Mérida
Our Tip

Match Events

31'
Sanchez K.
64'
Sub
Macias L. In: Barbosa J.
Out: Macias L.
64'
Sub
Guerrero A. In: Fraga Mesia A.
Out: Guerrero A.

AI Match Summary

The Primera RFEF - Group 1 game between AD Merida and Deportivo Fabril finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward AD Merida.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

22%
AD Merida
20%
Draws
58%
Deportivo Fabril
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Deportivo Fabril

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

58% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Deportivo Fabril come out ahead of AD Merida on wins alone.
  • 58% — that's where the model lands on Deportivo Fabril taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 62.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.6%
AD Merida Clean Sheet 18%
Deportivo Fabril Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric AD Merida Deportivo Fabril
Matches Played 30 28
Wins 9 15
Draws 7 8
Losses 14 5
Goals Scored 1.03 1.64
Goals Conceded 1.63 0.82
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 29, 2026 Primera RFEF - Group 1
AD Merida vs Deportivo Fabril
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

AD Merida Compare

Top Goalscorer El Ftouhi S.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Deportivo Fabril Compare

Avg xG / game 1.19
Avg xA / game 0.73

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

AD Merida 20 / 100
Deportivo Fabril 68 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
AD Merida Deportivo Fabril

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Deportivo Fabril Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

AD Merida found the back of the net in 67% of recent matches (30 games).

Deportivo Fabril has conceded goals in 64% of their last 28 outings.

Games between these two average 1.00 goals.

AD Merida went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

AD Merida VS Deportivo Fabril
1 Goals Scored 1
1.63 Goals Conceded 1.5
50% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

AD Merida

(Home)
27 Sept
AD Merida
3 : 5
UD Logrones
19 Sept
Ponferradina
1 : 0
AD Merida
12 Sept
AD Merida
3 : 4
Mirandes
06 Sept
Leonesa
1 : 0
AD Merida
29 Aug
AD Merida
1 : 0
Deportivo Fabril
Page 1 of 6

Deportivo Fabril

(Away)
26 Sept
Deportivo Fabril
2 : 0
Real Union
20 Sept
Ath Bilbao B
2 : 2
Deportivo Fabril
13 Sept
Deportivo Fabril
2 : 1
Ponferradina
06 Sept
Deportivo Fabril
1 : 1
Cacereno
29 Aug
AD Merida
1 : 0
Deportivo Fabril
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 UD Logrones 6 5 1 0 15:7 16
2 Lugo 6 5 1 0 9:3 16
3 Cacereno 5 3 2 0 6:1 11
4 Ath Bilbao B 6 3 2 1 12:8 11
5 Mirandes 5 3 1 1 9:6 10
6 Racing Club Ferrol 6 3 1 2 7:5 10
7 Real Union 6 2 2 2 13:11 8
8 Deportivo Fabril 6 2 2 2 8:7 8
9 Ponferradina 5 2 2 1 4:3 8
10 Pontevedra 6 2 2 2 8:8 8
11 Leonesa 6 2 2 2 4:5 8
12 Zamora 5 2 1 2 6:6 7
13 CD Extremadura 6 2 0 4 5:6 6
14 Unionistas de Salamanca 6 2 0 4 9:12 6
15 Barakaldo 6 1 3 2 6:9 6
16 Real Aviles 6 1 2 3 9:10 5
17 CD Coria 5 1 2 2 8:9 5
18 AD Merida 5 1 0 4 7:11 3
19 UD Ourense 6 0 2 4 2:10 2
20 Arenas Getxo 6 0 2 4 4:14 2
Promotion - LaLiga2 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Primera RFEF - Group 1 (Promotion - Play Offs)