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AD Merida vs UD Logrones - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Spain Spain

Primera RFEF - Group 1 Estadio Romano Jose Fouto, Mérida
Our Tip

Match Events

4' Event
Solar M.
17' Event
Morales A.
Assist: Amigo D.
20'
Issman L.

AI Match Summary

UD Logrones in this Primera RFEF - Group 1 matchup, with the score ending 3-5 — backing the pre-match view that favored UD Logrones.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

16%
AD Merida
15%
Draws
69%
UD Logrones
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: UD Logrones

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

69% / High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to UD Logrones lately — more wins on the board than AD Merida.
  • Win probability leans UD Logrones's way, sitting at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.400000000000002%
AD Merida Clean Sheet 10%
UD Logrones Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric AD Merida UD Logrones
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 8 21
Draws 6 5
Losses 14 2
Goals Scored 1.04 2.5
Goals Conceded 1.68 0.61
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 2.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 27, 2026 Primera RFEF - Group 1
AD Merida vs UD Logrones
3:5

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

AD Merida Compare

Top Goalscorer Solar M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader El Ftouhi S.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59

UD Logrones Compare

Top Goalscorer Morales A.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Santana I.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.94
Avg xA / game 1.18

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

AD Merida 10 / 100
UD Logrones 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
AD Merida UD Logrones

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick UD Logrones Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 8.00 goals as a typical output.

AD Merida's goal record stands at 64% scoring rate across 28 recent games.

UD Logrones's defensive record shows goals conceded in 43% of 28 matches.

AD Merida went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

AD Merida VS UD Logrones
1.38 Goals Scored 2.75
1.5 Goals Conceded 1
50% Over 1.5 100%
38% Over 2.5 88%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

AD Merida

(Home)
04 Oct
AD Merida
2 : 0
Cacereno
27 Sept
AD Merida
3 : 5
UD Logrones
19 Sept
Ponferradina
1 : 0
AD Merida
12 Sept
AD Merida
3 : 4
Mirandes
06 Sept
Leonesa
1 : 0
AD Merida
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UD Logrones

(Away)
04 Oct
UD Logrones
2 : 1
Deportivo Fabril
27 Sept
AD Merida
3 : 5
UD Logrones
18 Sept
UD Logrones
1 : 1
Pontevedra
12 Sept
UD Ourense
0 : 3
UD Logrones
06 Sept
Zamora
1 : 2
UD Logrones
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 UD Logrones 6 5 1 0 15:7 16
2 Lugo 6 5 1 0 9:3 16
3 Racing Club Ferrol 7 4 1 2 8:5 13
4 Cacereno 7 3 3 1 7:4 12
5 Ath Bilbao B 6 3 2 1 12:8 11
6 Mirandes 7 3 2 2 10:8 11
7 Zamora 7 3 2 2 9:7 11
8 Ponferradina 6 3 2 1 5:3 11
9 CD Extremadura 7 3 0 4 9:8 9
10 Real Union 6 2 2 2 13:11 8
11 Pontevedra 6 2 2 2 8:8 8
12 Deportivo Fabril 7 2 2 3 8:8 8
13 Leonesa 6 2 2 2 4:5 8
14 Unionistas de Salamanca 7 2 1 4 10:13 7
15 AD Merida 6 2 0 4 9:11 6
16 Barakaldo 7 1 3 3 6:10 6
17 Real Aviles 6 1 2 3 9:10 5
18 CD Coria 7 1 2 4 10:15 5
19 UD Ourense 7 1 2 4 3:10 5
20 Arenas Getxo 6 0 2 4 4:14 2
Promotion - LaLiga2 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Primera RFEF - Group 1 (Promotion - Play Offs)