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AD Pemba vs Sofala

Mozambique Mozambique

Mocambola
Tue, Jul 14, 2026
VS
12:45 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

AD Pemba host Sofala in the Mocambola. Don't expect fireworks — both sides lean defensive. Recent numbers: AD Pemba at 0.5 goals for, 1.13 against; Sofala at 0.5 for, 0.88 against. Past meetings favor AD Pemba slightly — 0-0-1 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Jul 14, 2026, ending 0:0. xG projections (0.69 - 0.81) back Sofala to edge this. Over 2.5 looks the sharpest market angle here.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

50%
AD Pemba
28%
Draws
22%
Sofala
Draw rate projection: 28% Favored: AD Pemba

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

76% / High Confidence
  • Recent numbers put AD Pemba and Sofala close enough that form isn't the deciding factor here.
  • 50% — that's where the model lands on AD Pemba taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 62.6%
AD Pemba Clean Sheet 20%
Sofala Clean Sheet 20%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric AD Pemba Sofala
Matches Played 7 9
Wins 2 2
Draws 1 4
Losses 4 3
Goals Scored 0.5 0.5
Goals Conceded 1.13 0.88
Expected Goals (xG) 0.50 0.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.13 0.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 14, 2026 Mocambola
AD Pemba vs Sofala
0:0

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

AD Pemba 49 / 100
Sofala 24 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
AD Pemba Sofala

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick ADP Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Away concern: Sofala has suffered 3 losses in 5 recent matches.

AD Pemba's goal record stands at 43% scoring rate across 7 recent games.

Sofala's defensive record shows goals conceded in 44% of 9 matches.

Historical meetings average 0.00 goals per match.

Scoring Trends

AD Pemba VS Sofala
0.5 Goals Scored 0.5
1.13 Goals Conceded 0.88
50% Over 1.5 38%
38% Over 2.5 13%
0% Over 3.5 13%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Ferroviario Beira954011:319
2UD Songo944112:816
3Associacao Black Bulls835010:314
4Ferroviario Lichinga74218:414
5Ferroviario Nampula741211:1113
6Costa do Sol833210:712
7Ferroviario Nacala73316:412
8Sofala92435:1010
9ENH Vilankulo81619:79
10Ferroviario Maputo82243:58
11AD Pemba72144:97
12Maxaquene90454:114
13Chingale de Tete90451:84
14Baia de Pemba70343:73