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AD Pemba vs Sofala

Mozambique Mozambique

Mocambola
AD Pemba Logo

AD Pemba

0 - 1
FT
Sofala Logo

Sofala

Our Tip
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Mocambola game between AD Pemba and Sofala finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Sofala.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

59%
AD Pemba
15%
Draws
26%
Sofala
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: AD Pemba

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

59% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and AD Pemba come out ahead of Sofala on wins alone.
  • 59% — that's where the model lands on AD Pemba taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 59%
AD Pemba Clean Sheet 20%
Sofala Clean Sheet 20%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric AD Pemba Sofala
Matches Played 16 18
Wins 5 4
Draws 2 6
Losses 9 8
Goals Scored 0.56 0.44
Goals Conceded 1.13 1
Expected Goals (xG) 0.69 0.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 1, 2026 Mocambola
AD Pemba vs Sofala
0:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

AD Pemba 49 / 100
Sofala 24 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
AD Pemba Sofala

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick AD Pemba Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Solid form: AD Pemba remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Sofala's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.

AD Pemba's goal record stands at 44% scoring rate across 16 recent games.

Defensive concern: Sofala conceded in 50% of 18 recent games.

Scoring Trends

AD Pemba VS Sofala
0.38 Goals Scored 0.5
1.38 Goals Conceded 1
63% Over 1.5 25%
13% Over 2.5 25%
0% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

AD Pemba

(Home)
30 Aug
AD Pemba
0 : 1
Ferroviario Lichinga
26 Aug
AD Pemba
2 : 0
Ferroviario Nampula
21 Aug
AD Pemba
1 : 0
Ferroviario Nacala
18 Aug
AD Pemba
1 : 0
Maxaquene
15 Aug
AD Pemba
0 : 2
Costa do Sol
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Sofala

(Away)
15 Sept
Sofala
0 : 2
Ferroviario Maputo
02 Sept
Costa do Sol
1 : 0
Sofala
29 Aug
Maxaquene
0 : 0
Sofala
23 Aug
UD Songo
1 : 0
Sofala
20 Aug
Chingale de Tete
0 : 1
Sofala
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Associacao Black Bulls 18 12 5 1 27:9 41
2 Costa do Sol 18 10 4 4 24:11 34
3 Ferroviario Beira 18 9 7 2 23:12 34
4 Ferroviario Lichinga 17 8 4 5 16:13 28
5 Ferroviario Nampula 17 8 4 5 19:21 28
6 UD Songo 17 5 10 2 16:13 25
7 Ferroviario Maputo 18 6 5 7 13:11 23
8 ENH Vilankulo 17 4 8 5 19:16 20
9 Ferroviario Nacala 17 5 5 7 8:12 20
10 Baia de Pemba 17 4 7 6 9:12 19
11 Sofala 18 4 6 8 8:18 18
12 AD Pemba 17 5 2 10 9:19 17
13 Maxaquene 17 1 7 9 8:19 10
14 Chingale de Tete 18 1 6 11 4:17 9
Promotion - CAF Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)