Sport Picks

Stadium Background

AD Tarma vs A. Lima

Peru Peru

Liga 1 Estadio Unión Tarma, Tarma
Our Tip

Match Events

16'
Castillo J.
22'
Antoni M.
29' Event
Castillo E.
Assist: Pavez E.

AI Match Summary

The Liga 1 game between AD Tarma and A. Lima finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward A. Lima.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

10%
AD Tarma
35%
Draws
55%
A. Lima
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: A. Lima

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

55% / Medium Confidence
  • AD Tarma haven't matched A. Lima's recent run of results.
  • A. Lima are the model's pick here, at 60%.
  • Regular Liga 1 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.200000000000003%
AD Tarma Clean Sheet 18%
A. Lima Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric AD Tarma A. Lima
Matches Played 29 31
Wins 8 17
Draws 9 8
Losses 12 6
Goals Scored 1.14 1.55
Goals Conceded 1.17 0.81
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 14, 2026 Liga 1
AD Tarma vs A. Lima
0:1
Aug 17, 2025 Liga 1
A. Lima vs AD Tarma
3:1
Mar 29, 2025 Liga 1
AD Tarma vs A. Lima
3:0
Aug 11, 2024 Liga 1
A. Lima vs AD Tarma
0:0
Mar 1, 2024 Liga 1
AD Tarma vs A. Lima
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

AD Tarma Compare

Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.66

A. Lima Compare

Top Goalscorer Castillo E.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.19
Avg xA / game 0.73

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

AD Tarma 20 / 100
A. Lima 68 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
AD Tarma A. Lima

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick A. Lima Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: AD Tarma scored in 69% of their last 29 outings.

A. Lima has conceded goals in 61% of their last 31 outings.

These sides typically produce 2.00 goals when they meet.

AD Tarma has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

AD Tarma VS A. Lima
1.13 Goals Scored 1.25
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.5
75% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

AD Tarma

(Home)
15 Aug
AD Tarma
1 : 1
Alianza Atl.
08 Aug
Cajamarca
1 : 1
AD Tarma
02 Aug
AD Tarma
0 : 1
Deportivo Garcilaso
25 Jul
Sport Boys
2 : 0
AD Tarma
18 Jul
AD Tarma
1 : 2
Universitario de Deportes
Page 1 of 6

A. Lima

(Away)
16 Aug
A. Lima
1 : 0
Cajamarca
09 Aug
Sport Boys
1 : 1
A. Lima
02 Aug
A. Lima
3 : 1
Alianza Atl.
26 Jul
Comerciantes Unidos
2 : 2
A. Lima
20 Jul
A. Lima
2 : 1
Sport Huancayo
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 A. Lima 17 12 4 1 30:8 40
2 Los Chankas 17 10 4 3 25:21 34
3 Cienciano 17 10 3 4 34:22 33
4 Universitario de Deportes 17 8 5 4 24:15 29
5 FBC Melgar 17 8 4 5 29:20 28
6 Cusco 17 8 3 6 21:24 27
7 Deportivo Garcilaso 17 7 5 5 21:18 26
8 Alianza Atl. 17 5 6 6 20:18 21
9 Comerciantes Unidos 17 5 6 6 18:20 21
10 AD Tarma 17 5 5 7 22:21 20
11 Sport Boys 17 5 5 7 15:19 20
12 Sporting Cristal 17 5 4 8 28:30 19
13 Cajamarca 17 4 6 7 21:26 18
14 Moquegua 17 5 3 9 17:24 18
15 FC Cajamarca 17 4 5 8 23:28 17
16 Atletico Grau 17 4 4 9 12:18 16
17 Sport Huancayo 17 4 4 9 21:31 16
18 Juan Pablo II 17 4 4 9 22:40 16
Promotion - Liga 1 (Play Offs)