Sport Picks

Stadium Background

AD Tarma vs Los Chankas

Peru Peru

Liga 1 Estadio Unión Tarma
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

AD Tarma play Los Chankas in the Liga 1. It looks like a close match. Recently, AD Tarma averaged 1.21 goals scored and 1.18 conceded. Los Chankas averaged 1.36 goals scored and 1.04 conceded. In past meetings, AD Tarma won 3, Los Chankas won 1, and they drew 1. Their last match on Apr 27, 2026 ended 4:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.50 for AD Tarma and 0.88 for Los Chankas. This points to a Los Chankas double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

32%
AD Tarma
22%
Draws
46%
Los Chankas
Draw rate projection: 22% Favored: Los Chankas

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

75% / High Confidence
  • AD Tarma picked up more points recently compared to Los Chankas.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.50 vs 0.88 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 62%
Over 2.5 Goals 44%
Over 3.5 Goals 26%
Over 4.5 Goals 13%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 46%
AD Tarma Clean Sheet 25%
Los Chankas Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 56%
Second Half Goal 59%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric AD Tarma Los Chankas
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 8 17
Draws 9 4
Losses 11 7
Goals Scored 1.21 1.36
Goals Conceded 1.18 1.04
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.00 1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 27, 2026 Liga 1
AD Tarma vs Los Chankas
4:0
Nov 10, 2025 Liga 1
AD Tarma vs Los Chankas
1:0
Jul 4, 2025 Liga 1
Los Chankas vs AD Tarma
1:1
Jul 27, 2024 Liga 1
AD Tarma vs Los Chankas
2:1
Feb 11, 2024 Liga 1
Los Chankas vs AD Tarma
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

AD Tarma Compare

Top Goalscorer Bauman J.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Cedron V.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81

Los Chankas Compare

Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.42

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

AD Tarma 34 / 100
Los Chankas 43 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
AD Tarma Los Chankas

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Los Chankas or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +33.4%
4.17
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +15.7%
2.63
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

AD Tarma attacking → ← attacking Los Chankas

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

AD Tarma scored in 71% of their last 28 games.

Los Chankas let in goals in 64% of their last 28 matches.

Games between these two average 2.40 goals.

AD Tarma went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Los Chankas lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

33 Points in last 5 55
1.63 Goals expected (xG) 0.75
1.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.38

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1A. Lima17124130:840
2Los Chankas17104325:2134
3Cienciano17103434:2233
4Universitario de Deportes1785424:1529
5FBC Melgar1784529:2028
6Cusco1783621:2427
7Deportivo Garcilaso1775521:1826
8Alianza Atl.1756620:1821
9Comerciantes Unidos1756618:2021
10AD Tarma1755722:2120
11Sport Boys1755715:1920
12Sporting Cristal1754828:3019
13Cajamarca1746721:2618
14Moquegua1753917:2418
15FC Cajamarca1745823:2817
16Atletico Grau1744912:1816
17Sport Huancayo1744921:3116
18Juan Pablo II1744922:4016