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AD Tarma vs Moquegua - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Peru Peru

Liga 1 Estadio Unión Tarma, Tarma
Wed, Oct 28, 2026
VS
04:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

AD Tarma host Moquegua in the Liga 1. Little to choose between these two on current form. Moquegua have shipped 1.3 goals a game lately, while AD Tarma have conceded 1.53 and scored 1.13. Head-to-head, AD Tarma have won 1 to Moquegua's 0, with 1 draws. They last met on Aug 27, 2026, ending 2:0. xG projections (1.50 - 1.31) back AD Tarma to edge this. AI prediction: Home (1) Win — correct score tipped at 2-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

85%
AD Tarma
15%
Draws
0%
Moquegua
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: AD Tarma

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

85% / Very High Confidence
  • Moquegua have managed 0.87 goals a game lately — AD Tarma are scoring more at 1.13.
  • Win probability leans AD Tarma's way, sitting at 70%.
  • Regular Liga 1 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69%
AD Tarma Clean Sheet 18%
Moquegua Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric AD Tarma Moquegua
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 8 8
Draws 8 9
Losses 14 13
Goals Scored 1.13 0.87
Goals Conceded 1.53 1.3
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 27, 2026 Copa de la Liga
AD Tarma vs Moquegua
2:0
May 9, 2026 Liga 1
Moquegua vs AD Tarma
2:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

AD Tarma 67 / 100
Moquegua 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
AD Tarma Moquegua

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick AD Tarma Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Difficult form: Moquegua registered 5 defeats in their last 5 games.

Attacking prowess: AD Tarma scored in 67% of their last 30 outings.

Defensive concern: Moquegua conceded in 67% of 30 recent games.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Scoring Trends

AD Tarma VS Moquegua
0.88 Goals Scored 0.63
2 Goals Conceded 2.13
88% Over 1.5 100%
50% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

AD Tarma

(Home)
10 Oct
AD Tarma
0 : 0
FC Cajamarca
01 Oct
Sporting Cristal
5 : 0
AD Tarma
27 Sept
AD Tarma
0 : 1
Sporting Cristal
23 Sept
AD Tarma
2 : 1
Cienciano
19 Sept
A. Lima
2 : 0
AD Tarma
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Moquegua

(Away)
08 Oct
Moquegua
0 : 2
Cienciano
20 Sept
Juan Pablo II
4 : 0
Moquegua
13 Sept
Moquegua
1 : 2
Sporting Cristal
05 Sept
Cusco
2 : 0
Moquegua
30 Aug
Moquegua
1 : 4
Alianza Atl.
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Sporting Cristal 11 7 1 3 21:10 22
2 Deportivo Garcilaso 11 7 1 3 18:7 22
3 Alianza Atl. 11 7 1 3 23:18 22
4 Sport Huancayo 11 7 1 3 17:13 22
5 Universitario de Deportes 11 6 3 2 21:18 21
6 Juan Pablo II 11 5 4 2 21:13 19
7 FBC Melgar 11 5 4 2 18:11 19
8 A. Lima 11 5 4 2 16:11 19
9 Sport Boys 11 5 3 3 15:10 18
10 Cusco 11 6 0 5 20:16 18
11 Atletico Grau 11 5 2 4 14:13 17
12 Cienciano 11 3 2 6 14:18 11
13 FC Cajamarca 11 3 2 6 18:24 11
14 Comerciantes Unidos 11 2 4 5 18:19 10
15 Los Chankas 11 2 3 6 11:24 9
16 Moquegua 11 1 4 6 7:19 7
17 AD Tarma 11 1 3 7 7:21 6
18 Cajamarca 11 0 2 9 11:25 2
Promotion - Liga 1 (Play Offs)