Sport Picks

Stadium Background

AD Tarma vs Moquegua

Peru Peru

Copa de la Liga Estadio Unión Tarma, Tarma
Our Tip

Match Events

5' Event
Rugel L.
10'
Perez L.
18'
Nunez O.

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 2-0. This leg finished 2-0.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

85%
AD Tarma
15%
Draws
0%
Moquegua
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: AD Tarma

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

85% / Very High Confidence
  • Moquegua have won more games recently than AD Tarma.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • Moquegua arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor AD Tarma, who have won 1 of the last 2 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32%
AD Tarma Clean Sheet 68%
Moquegua Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric AD Tarma Moquegua
Matches Played 28 36
Wins 8 12
Draws 7 9
Losses 13 15
Goals Scored 1.21 1.14
Goals Conceded 1.46 1.47
Expected Goals (xG) 1.06 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 27, 2026 Copa de la Liga
AD Tarma vs Moquegua
2:0
May 9, 2026 Liga 1
Moquegua vs AD Tarma
2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

AD Tarma Compare

Top Goalscorer Rugel L.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Garcilazo J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.82
Avg xA / game 0.53

Moquegua Compare

Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

AD Tarma 41 / 100
Moquegua 31 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
AD Tarma Moquegua

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick AD Tarma Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Away concern: Moquegua has suffered 5 losses in 5 recent matches.

AD Tarma found the back of the net in 71% of recent matches (28 games).

Moquegua has conceded goals in 69% of their last 36 outings.

Historical meetings average 3.00 goals per match.

Scoring Trends

AD Tarma VS Moquegua
0.75 Goals Scored 0.5
2 Goals Conceded 1.38
88% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 13%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

AD Tarma

(Home)
23 Sept
AD Tarma
2 : 1
Cienciano
19 Sept
A. Lima
2 : 0
AD Tarma
06 Sept
FBC Melgar
3 : 0
AD Tarma
30 Aug
AD Tarma
1 : 3
Sport Huancayo
27 Aug
AD Tarma
2 : 0
Moquegua
Page 1 of 6

Moquegua

(Away)
20 Sept
Juan Pablo II
4 : 0
Moquegua
13 Sept
Moquegua
1 : 2
Sporting Cristal
05 Sept
Cusco
2 : 0
Moquegua
30 Aug
Moquegua
1 : 4
Alianza Atl.
27 Aug
AD Tarma
2 : 0
Moquegua
Page 1 of 8

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/8-finals
Alianza Atl. 3
Pirata 2
Cajamarca 4
ADA Jaen 1
Atletico Grau 2
Carlos Mannucci 1
Sport Boys 1
Comerciantes FC 0
Sporting Cristal 2
Tacna Heroica 1
Sport Huancayo 3
Los Chankas 1
Cienciano 2
AD Tarma 3
Moquegua 1
Deportivo Garcilaso 0
Quarter-finals
Alianza Atl. 2
Cajamarca 1
Atletico Grau 2
Sport Boys 3
Sporting Cristal 4
Sport Huancayo 1
AD Tarma 2
Moquegua 0
Semi-finals
Alianza Atl. -
Sport Boys -
Sporting Cristal -
AD Tarma -
Final
TBD -
TBD -