Sport Picks
Match Events
27'
27'
Philip J.
62'
62'
Rahman M.
AI Match Summary
The Premier League game between Adama City and Arba Menche finished 0-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Arba Menche.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
46%
15%
39%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Adama City
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
46%
/ Medium Confidence
- Arba Menche have managed 0.87 goals a game lately — Adama City are scoring more at 1.03.
- Adama City are the model's pick here, at 50%.
- Regular Premier League form gives a decent read on both sides.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 62.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.2%
Adama City Clean Sheet 68%
Arba Menche Clean Sheet 14%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Adama City | Arba Menche |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 30 |
| Wins | 7 | 7 |
| Draws | 12 | 10 |
| Losses | 11 | 13 |
| Goals Scored | 1.03 | 0.87 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.23 | 1.23 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.06 | 0.88 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Mar 10, 2026 Premier League
Adama City vs Arba Menche
0:2
Nov 4, 2025 Premier League
Arba Menche vs Adama City
0:1
Mar 5, 2025 Premier League
Adama City vs Arba Menche
1:3
Jan 13, 2025 Premier League
Arba Menche vs Adama City
2:0
May 20, 2023 Premier League
Adama City vs Arba Menche
0:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Adama City Compare
Avg xG / game 0.82
Avg xA / game 0.53
Arba Menche Compare
Top Goalscorer Philip J.
1 Goals Assists Leader Rahman M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Adama City 59 / 100
Arba Menche 23 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Adama City Arba Menche
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Adama City Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Attacking prowess: Adama City scored in 63% of their last 30 outings.
Arba Menche has conceded goals in 67% of their last 30 outings.
Historical meetings average 1.80 goals per match.
Adama City has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Scoring Trends
Adama City VS Arba Menche
1 Goals Scored 1
0.75 Goals Conceded 1.13
50% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 13%
Recent Form & Match History
Adama City
(Home) 02 Jul
Hawassa
2 : 3 Adama City
28 Jun
Adama City
0 : 2 Welayta Dicha
21 Jun
Mekelle 70 Enderta FC
0 : 0 Adama City
15 Jun
Adama City
2 : 1 Ethiopia Nigd Bank
30 May
Sidama Bunna
1 : 0 Adama City
Page 1 of 6
28 Jun
Adama City
0 : 2 Welayta Dicha
15 Jun
Adama City
2 : 1 Ethiopia Nigd Bank
21 May
Adama City
0 : 0 Welwalo Adigrat
09 May
Adama City
4 : 0 Shire Endaselassie
29 Apr
Adama City
1 : 1 Dire Dawa
Page 1 of 3
Arba Menche
(Away) 01 Jul
Dire Dawa
2 : 1 Arba Menche
26 Jun
Arba Menche
0 : 1 Welwalo Adigrat
22 Jun
Fasil Kenema
2 : 0 Arba Menche
15 Jun
Arba Menche
2 : 0 Shire Endaselassie
28 May
Mechal SC
1 : 2 Arba Menche
Page 1 of 6
01 Jul
Dire Dawa
2 : 1 Arba Menche
22 Jun
Fasil Kenema
2 : 0 Arba Menche
28 May
Mechal SC
1 : 2 Arba Menche
16 May
Hawassa
0 : 0 Arba Menche
05 May
Mekelle 70 Enderta FC
0 : 2 Arba Menche
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sidama Bunna | 38 | 19 | 11 | 8 | 43:23 | 68 |
| 2 | Negele Arsi Ketema FC | 38 | 15 | 15 | 8 | 37:30 | 60 |
| 3 | Mechal SC | 38 | 14 | 15 | 9 | 44:31 | 57 |
| 4 | Fasil Kenema | 38 | 14 | 13 | 11 | 28:28 | 55 |
| 5 | Ethio Electric S.C. | 38 | 13 | 15 | 10 | 32:26 | 54 |
| 6 | St. Georges | 38 | 14 | 12 | 12 | 33:31 | 54 |
| 7 | Welayta Dicha | 38 | 11 | 18 | 9 | 37:31 | 51 |
| 8 | Ethiopia Bunna (Ethiopian Coffee) | 38 | 13 | 12 | 13 | 40:39 | 51 |
| 9 | Hawassa | 38 | 12 | 14 | 12 | 37:32 | 50 |
| 10 | Sheger Ketema FC | 38 | 11 | 17 | 10 | 34:31 | 50 |
| 11 | Bahir Dar Kenema | 38 | 9 | 21 | 8 | 28:28 | 48 |
| 12 | Hadiya Hossana | 38 | 11 | 15 | 12 | 31:35 | 48 |
| 13 | Ethiopia Nigd Bank | 38 | 11 | 14 | 13 | 45:45 | 47 |
| 14 | Ethiopian Insurance | 38 | 10 | 16 | 12 | 30:31 | 46 |
| 15 | Adama City | 38 | 10 | 16 | 12 | 35:39 | 46 |
| 16 | Welwalo Adigrat | 38 | 10 | 16 | 12 | 32:36 | 46 |
| 17 | Shire Endaselassie | 38 | 9 | 15 | 14 | 24:32 | 42 |
| 18 | Dire Dawa | 38 | 9 | 15 | 14 | 27:41 | 42 |
| 19 | Mekelle 70 Enderta FC | 38 | 8 | 16 | 14 | 26:38 | 40 |
| 20 | Arba Menche | 38 | 7 | 14 | 17 | 30:46 | 35 |
Promotion - CAF Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - CAF Confederation Cup (Qualification)
