Sport Picks
Adelaide Utd U23 vs Sturt Lions FC Prediction & H2H Stats
Australia
NPL South Australia Summit Sport and Recreation Park, Mount Barker 
Match Events
7'
7'
Lesi T.
12'
12'
Elton E.
38'
38'
Rarhidi R.
AI Match Summary
Sturt Lions FC in this NPL South Australia matchup, with the score ending 2-3 — backing the pre-match view that favored Sturt Lions FC.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
35%
35%
30%
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
35%
/ Low Confidence
- Sturt Lions FC have won more games recently than Adelaide Utd U23.
- Adelaide Utd U23 are the model's pick here, at 50%.
- Regular NPL South Australia form gives a decent read on both sides.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73%
Adelaide Utd U23 Clean Sheet 15%
Sturt Lions FC Clean Sheet 12%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Adelaide Utd U23 | Sturt Lions FC |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 30 |
| Wins | 9 | 15 |
| Draws | 9 | 3 |
| Losses | 12 | 12 |
| Goals Scored | 1.43 | 1.73 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.77 | 1.4 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.19 | 1.56 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Jul 25, 2026 NPL South Australia
Adelaide Utd U23 vs Sturt Lions FC
2:3
May 2, 2026 NPL South Australia
Sturt Lions FC vs Adelaide Utd U23
2:3
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Adelaide Utd U23 Compare
Top Goalscorer Rarhidi R.
1 Goals Assists Leader Mohtashami A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59
Sturt Lions FC Compare
Top Goalscorer Lesi T.
1 Goals Assists Leader Elton E.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.42
Avg xA / game 0.87
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Adelaide Utd U23 48 / 100
Sturt Lions FC 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Adelaide Utd U23 Sturt Lions FC
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Adelaide Utd U23 Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
These sides typically produce 5.00 goals when they meet.
Adelaide Utd U23 scored in 70% of their last 30 games.
Sturt Lions FC has conceded goals in 67% of their last 30 outings.
Solid form: Adelaide Utd U23 remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.
Scoring Trends
Adelaide Utd U23 VS Sturt Lions FC
0.88 Goals Scored 1.75
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.5
75% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 50%
Recent Form & Match History
Adelaide Utd U23
(Home) 15 Aug
West Torrens Birkalla
2 : 1 Adelaide Utd U23
08 Aug
Adelaide Utd U23
5 : 2 Para
01 Aug
MetroStars
1 : 1 Adelaide Utd U23
25 Jul
Adelaide Utd U23
2 : 3 Sturt Lions FC
19 Jul
FK Beograd
0 : 2 Adelaide Utd U23
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08 Aug
Adelaide Utd U23
5 : 2 Para
25 Jul
Adelaide Utd U23
2 : 3 Sturt Lions FC
04 Jul
Adelaide Utd U23
0 : 0 Campbelltown City
20 Jun
Adelaide Utd U23
1 : 1 Adelaide Comets
13 Jun
Adelaide Utd U23
0 : 0 Adelaide City
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Sturt Lions FC
(Away) 15 Aug
Sturt Lions FC
1 : 3 Campbelltown City
11 Aug
Sturt Lions FC
0 : 0 Adelaide Comets
08 Aug
Croydon
1 : 1 Sturt Lions FC
25 Jul
Adelaide Utd U23
2 : 3 Sturt Lions FC
18 Jul
West Adelaide
0 : 0 Sturt Lions FC
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08 Aug
Croydon
1 : 1 Sturt Lions FC
25 Jul
Adelaide Utd U23
2 : 3 Sturt Lions FC
18 Jul
West Adelaide
0 : 0 Sturt Lions FC
26 Jun
West Torrens Birkalla
4 : 1 Sturt Lions FC
13 Jun
MetroStars
1 : 0 Sturt Lions FC
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League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Adelaide City | 22 | 14 | 6 | 2 | 44:16 | 48 |
| 2 | West Torrens Birkalla | 22 | 14 | 3 | 5 | 54:29 | 45 |
| 3 | MetroStars | 22 | 13 | 5 | 4 | 53:23 | 44 |
| 4 | Playford Patriots | 22 | 10 | 5 | 7 | 42:31 | 35 |
| 5 | FK Beograd | 22 | 10 | 3 | 9 | 35:30 | 33 |
| 6 | Croydon | 22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 46:41 | 30 |
| 7 | Adelaide Utd U23 | 22 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 33:32 | 29 |
| 8 | Campbelltown City | 22 | 8 | 5 | 9 | 35:36 | 29 |
| 9 | Sturt Lions FC | 22 | 8 | 3 | 11 | 35:36 | 27 |
| 10 | West Adelaide | 22 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 40:44 | 25 |
| 11 | Adelaide Comets | 22 | 5 | 5 | 12 | 25:38 | 20 |
| 12 | Para | 22 | 0 | 2 | 20 | 16:102 | 2 |
Promotion - NPL South Australia (Play Offs)
Promotion - NPL South Australia (Play Offs)
Relegation - SA State League 2027 (Main)
