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Adriese vs Montebelluna Prediction & H2H Stats

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group C 2023/2024
Our Tip

Match Events

46' Event
Chinellato M.
86' Event
Abdalla J. M.
88' Event
Thiam L.

AI Match Summary

Montebelluna in this Serie D - Group C 2023/2024 matchup, with the score ending 1-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Montebelluna.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

0%
Adriese
15%
Draws
85%
Montebelluna
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Montebelluna

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

85% / Very High Confidence
  • Montebelluna have won more games recently than Adriese.
  • Win probability leans Montebelluna's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Regular Serie D - Group C 2023/2024 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 44%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.8%
Adriese Clean Sheet 12%
Montebelluna Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Adriese Montebelluna
Matches Played 38 30
Wins 10 11
Draws 6 9
Losses 22 10
Goals Scored 1.08 1.07
Goals Conceded 1.74 1.2
Expected Goals (xG) 0.92 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 18, 2024 Serie D - Group C
Adriese vs Montebelluna
1:2
Oct 15, 2023 Serie D - Group C
Montebelluna vs Adriese
1:1
Feb 26, 2023 Serie D - Group C
Montebelluna vs Adriese
0:2
Dec 7, 2022 Coppa Italia Serie D
Montebelluna vs Adriese
1:2
Oct 23, 2022 Serie D - Group C
Adriese vs Montebelluna
3:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Adriese Compare

Top Goalscorer Abdalla J. M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.71
Avg xA / game 0.46

Montebelluna Compare

Top Goalscorer Chinellato M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Thiam L.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Adriese 10 / 100
Montebelluna 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Adriese Montebelluna

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Montebelluna Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Montebelluna conceded in 63% of 30 recent games.

H2H data points to 3.00 goals as a typical output.

Montebelluna's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.

Attacking prowess: Adriese scored in 53% of their last 38 outings.

Scoring Trends

Adriese VS -
0.63 Goals Scored 0
2.5 Goals Conceded 0
88% Over 1.5 0%
75% Over 2.5 0%
38% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Adriese

(Home)
03 May
Adriese
0 : 4
Brian Lignano
26 Apr
Clodiense
2 : 1
Adriese
19 Apr
Adriese
0 : 1
Campodarsego
11 Apr
Calvi Noale
2 : 0
Adriese
02 Apr
Adriese
0 : 2
Cjarlins Muzane
Page 1 of 8

Montebelluna

(Away)
05 May
Clodiense
2 : 0
Montebelluna
28 Apr
Montebelluna
3 : 2
Cjarlins Muzane
21 Apr
Breno
3 : 2
Montebelluna
14 Apr
Montebelluna
0 : 0
Montecchio Maggiore
07 Apr
Treviso
2 : 0
Montebelluna
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Clodiense 34 25 5 4 49:17 80
2 Dolomiti Bellunesi 34 19 9 6 56:25 66
3 Treviso 34 19 3 12 51:37 60
4 Bassano Virtus 34 15 9 10 35:30 54
5 Campodarsego 34 12 15 7 42:26 51
6 Este 34 13 12 9 44:33 51
7 Montecchio Maggiore 34 14 9 11 48:40 51
8 Adriese 34 13 11 10 54:41 50
9 Portogruaro 34 13 9 12 52:43 48
10 Mestre 34 13 9 12 34:37 48
11 Montebelluna 34 11 12 11 35:41 45
12 Chions 34 10 11 13 40:50 41
13 Luparense FC 34 10 9 15 38:41 39
14 Breno 34 8 13 13 39:49 37
15 Cjarlins Muzane 34 7 14 13 30:37 35
16 Castegnato 34 7 12 15 39:58 33
17 Virtus Bolzano 34 4 12 18 25:52 24
18 Mori 34 3 6 25 22:76 15
Promotion - Serie D - Group C 2023/2024 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group C 2023/2024 (Play Out)