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AEA Aracatuba vs Sao Caetano

Brazil Brazil

Paulista A4
Our Tip

Match Events

9' Event
Edu
16' Event
Caiuby F.
51' Event
Carlos Andre

AI Match Summary

The Paulista A4 game between AEA Aracatuba and Sao Caetano finished 1-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Sao Caetano.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

0%
AEA Aracatuba
15%
Draws
85%
Sao Caetano
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Sao Caetano

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

0% / Low Confidence
  • Sao Caetano carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 0% — that's where the model lands on AEA Aracatuba taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 25.200000000000003%
AEA Aracatuba Clean Sheet 68%
Sao Caetano Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric AEA Aracatuba Sao Caetano
Matches Played 34 34
Wins 8 12
Draws 6 9
Losses 20 13
Goals Scored 0.76 0.97
Goals Conceded 1.74 1.35
Expected Goals (xG) 1.23 2.56
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 28, 2026 Paulista A4
AEA Aracatuba vs Sao Caetano
1:3
Feb 12, 2025 Paulista A4
Sao Caetano vs AEA Aracatuba
3:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

AEA Aracatuba Compare

Top Goalscorer Edu
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.95
Avg xA / game 0.61

Sao Caetano Compare

Top Goalscorer Caiuby F.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Carlos Andre
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.33
Avg xA / game 1.42

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

AEA Aracatuba 50 / 100
Sao Caetano 27 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
AEA Aracatuba Sao Caetano

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick AEA Aracatuba Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 3.50 goals as a typical output.

Sao Caetano lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Attacking prowess: AEA Aracatuba scored in 47% of their last 34 outings.

Sao Caetano's defensive record shows goals conceded in 59% of 34 matches.

Scoring Trends

AEA Aracatuba VS Sao Caetano
0 Goals Scored 1.38
3.75 Goals Conceded 1.25
100% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 50%
50% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

AEA Aracatuba

(Home)
04 Apr
AEA Aracatuba
0 : 3
Jabaquara
28 Mar
Penapolense
6 : 0
AEA Aracatuba
25 Mar
AEA Aracatuba
0 : 4
Vocem
21 Mar
ECUS SP
2 : 0
AEA Aracatuba
18 Mar
AEA Aracatuba
2 : 3
Nacional SP
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Sao Caetano

(Away)
05 Sept
Primavera EC
7 : 0
Sao Caetano
29 Aug
Sao Caetano
0 : 5
Primavera EC
22 Aug
Sao Jose EC
0 : 0
Sao Caetano
17 Aug
Sao Caetano
0 : 1
Santo Andre
09 Aug
EC Sao Bernardo
2 : 0
Sao Caetano
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Inter de Bebedouro 15 10 3 2 21:6 33
2 Sao Caetano 15 9 2 4 23:14 29
3 Penapolense 15 8 5 2 22:10 29
4 Sao-Carlense 15 7 5 3 20:13 26
5 Barretos EC 15 7 5 3 12:10 26
6 Taquaritinga 15 7 3 5 20:13 24
7 Jacarei FC 15 6 5 4 11:9 23
8 Lemense 15 6 4 5 14:12 22
9 ECUS SP 15 5 7 3 11:6 22
10 Comercial 15 6 2 7 17:16 20
11 Tanabi 15 4 6 5 12:10 18
12 Jabaquara 15 4 4 7 14:17 16
13 Vocem 15 3 6 6 12:13 15
14 Colorado Caieiras 15 1 7 7 6:20 10
15 Nacional SP 15 2 2 11 7:22 8
16 AEA Aracatuba 15 1 2 12 6:37 5
Promotion - Paulista A4 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Paulista B (Main)