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AEK Larnaca vs APOEL - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Cyprus Cyprus

Cyprus League AEK Arena, Larnaca
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Match Events

18'
Sastre J.
28' Event
Repas J.
37'
Stafylidis K.

AI Match Summary

AEK Larnaca in this Cyprus League matchup, with the score ending 3-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored AEK Larnaca.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

32%
AEK Larnaca
30%
Draws
38%
APOEL
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: APOEL

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

38% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to AEK Larnaca lately — more wins on the board than APOEL.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 35.2%
AEK Larnaca Clean Sheet 11%
APOEL Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric AEK Larnaca APOEL
Matches Played 32 30
Wins 15 11
Draws 8 7
Losses 9 12
Goals Scored 1.66 1.63
Goals Conceded 1.19 1.6
Expected Goals (xG) 1.56 1.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 29, 2026 Cyprus League
AEK Larnaca vs APOEL
3:1
May 3, 2026 Cyprus League
APOEL vs AEK Larnaca
1:0
Mar 22, 2026 Cyprus League
AEK Larnaca vs APOEL
1:0
Feb 8, 2026 Cyprus League
APOEL vs AEK Larnaca
1:2
Oct 27, 2025 Cyprus League
AEK Larnaca vs APOEL
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

AEK Larnaca Compare

Top Goalscorer Repas J.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Chacon Y.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.2
Avg xA / game 0.78

APOEL Compare

Top Goalscorer Avramidis I.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.65
Avg xA / game 1.01

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

AEK Larnaca 30 / 100
APOEL 41 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
AEK Larnaca APOEL

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick APOEL Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

APOEL has conceded goals in 83% of their last 30 outings.

Recent resilience: AEK Larnaca stayed unbeaten in 5 of the last 5 games.

Attacking prowess: AEK Larnaca scored in 78% of their last 32 outings.

Games between these two average 2.20 goals.

Scoring Trends

AEK Larnaca VS APOEL
2 Goals Scored 2.75
0.88 Goals Conceded 1.13
75% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 88%
25% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

AEK Larnaca

(Home)
31 Oct
Krasava
2 : 2
AEK Larnaca
26 Oct
AEK Larnaca
2 : 0
Omonia
21 Oct
AEK Larnaca
3 : 2
Akritas Chloraka
18 Oct
Aris Limassol
1 : 1
AEK Larnaca
12 Oct
AEK Larnaca
1 : 0
Omonia Aradippou
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APOEL

(Away)
01 Nov
Omonia Aradippou
1 : 2
APOEL
28 Oct
APOEL
5 : 2
Halkanoras
25 Oct
APOEL
4 : 1
Omonia 29th May
19 Oct
Pafos
0 : 0
APOEL
10 Oct
APOEL
2 : 1
Nea Salamis
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 AEK Larnaca 8 5 2 1 15:7 17
2 Apollon Limassol 8 4 4 0 21:10 16
3 Omonia 8 4 3 1 15:6 15
4 Aris Limassol 8 4 3 1 12:10 15
5 AEL Limassol 8 5 0 3 11:13 15
6 APOEL 8 4 2 2 18:10 14
7 Pafos 8 3 4 1 9:5 13
8 Omonia 29th May 8 3 2 3 13:13 11
9 Karmiotissa 8 1 3 4 5:16 6
10 Anorthosis 8 2 0 6 7:15 6
11 Omonia Aradippou 8 1 3 4 5:10 6
12 Ol. Nicosia 8 0 6 2 11:13 6
13 Nea Salamis 8 1 2 5 11:16 5
14 Krasava 8 1 2 5 8:17 5
Promotion - Cyprus League (Championship Group)
Relegation - Cyprus League (Relegation Group)