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AEK Larnaca vs Apollon Limassol

Cyprus Cyprus

Cyprus League 2025/2026 AEK Arena, Larnaca
Our Tip

Match Events

11' Event
Bajic R.
26'
Ekpolo G.
32'
Roberge V.

AI Match Summary

AEK Larnaca in this Cyprus League 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored AEK Larnaca.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
AEK Larnaca
30%
Draws
23%
Apollon Limassol
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: AEK Larnaca

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Apollon Limassol have won more games recently than AEK Larnaca.
  • AEK Larnaca are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Regular Cyprus League 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 63%
Over 4.5 Goals 28%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
AEK Larnaca Clean Sheet 12%
Apollon Limassol Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric AEK Larnaca Apollon Limassol
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 13 14
Draws 8 9
Losses 10 7
Goals Scored 1.52 1.6
Goals Conceded 1.13 1.27
Expected Goals (xG) 1.81 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 16, 2026 Club Friendly
Apollon Limassol vs AEK Larnaca
0:0
May 6, 2026 Cyprus League
AEK Larnaca vs Apollon Limassol
1:0
Apr 5, 2026 Cyprus League
Apollon Limassol vs AEK Larnaca
1:1
Feb 14, 2026 Cyprus League
AEK Larnaca vs Apollon Limassol
0:1
Nov 2, 2025 Cyprus League
Apollon Limassol vs AEK Larnaca
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

AEK Larnaca Compare

Top Goalscorer Bajic R.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.39
Avg xA / game 0.91

Apollon Limassol Compare

Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

AEK Larnaca 83 / 100
Apollon Limassol 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
AEK Larnaca Apollon Limassol

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick AEK Larnaca Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

AEK Larnaca scored in 71% of their last 31 games.

Defensive concern: Apollon Limassol conceded in 63% of 30 recent games.

AEK Larnaca went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

These sides typically produce 1.40 goals when they meet.

Scoring Trends

AEK Larnaca VS Apollon Limassol
2.38 Goals Scored 2
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.25
75% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 75%
63% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

AEK Larnaca

(Home)
27 Sept
AEK Larnaca
2 : 1
Nea Salamis
18 Sept
Omonia 29th May
1 : 2
AEK Larnaca
13 Sept
AEK Larnaca
0 : 1
Pafos
06 Sept
Nea Salamis
1 : 4
AEK Larnaca
29 Aug
AEK Larnaca
3 : 1
APOEL
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Apollon Limassol

(Away)
19 Sept
Apollon Limassol
2 : 2
APOEL
12 Sept
Omonia
0 : 0
Apollon Limassol
05 Sept
Apollon Limassol
3 : 1
Anorthosis
29 Aug
Aris Limassol
2 : 2
Apollon Limassol
22 Aug
Nea Salamis
3 : 1
Apollon Limassol
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Omonia 36 27 6 3 88:24 87
2 AEK Larnaca 36 20 9 7 62:33 69
3 Apollon Limassol 36 20 7 9 52:41 67
4 Pafos 36 18 8 10 66:38 62
5 APOEL 36 15 7 14 53:45 52
6 Aris Limassol 36 14 9 13 61:45 51
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)