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AEK Larnaca vs Karmiotissa - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Cyprus Cyprus

Cyprus League AEK Arena, Larnaca
Fri, Nov 6, 2026
VS
05:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

AEK Larnaca host Karmiotissa in the Cyprus League. This matchup has a clear pattern when you look at past meetings. Karmiotissa have shipped 1.27 goals a game lately, while AEK Larnaca have conceded 1.2 and scored 1.67. Past meetings favor AEK Larnaca slightly — 5-0-0 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Aug 7, 2026, ending 3:0. The numbers (2.00 xG vs 0.63) point toward AEK Larnaca. Home (1) are the model's selection here, or BTTS: GG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

61%
AEK Larnaca
30%
Draws
9%
Karmiotissa
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: AEK Larnaca

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

61% / High Confidence
  • Karmiotissa haven't matched AEK Larnaca's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans AEK Larnaca's way, sitting at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and AEK Larnaca have taken 5 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.6%
AEK Larnaca Clean Sheet 20%
Karmiotissa Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric AEK Larnaca Karmiotissa
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 14 12
Draws 7 11
Losses 9 7
Goals Scored 1.67 1.5
Goals Conceded 1.2 1.27
Expected Goals (xG) 2.00 0.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 7, 2026 Club Friendly
AEK Larnaca vs Karmiotissa
3:0
Feb 22, 2025 Cyprus League
Karmiotissa vs AEK Larnaca
0:3
Nov 25, 2024 Cyprus League
AEK Larnaca vs Karmiotissa
2:0
Jan 26, 2024 Cyprus League
Karmiotissa vs AEK Larnaca
1:3
Oct 21, 2023 Cyprus League
AEK Larnaca vs Karmiotissa
5:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

AEK Larnaca 85 / 100
Karmiotissa 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
AEK Larnaca Karmiotissa

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick AEK Larnaca Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 3.40 goals when they meet.

AEK Larnaca has registered 5 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

AEK Larnaca found the back of the net in 77% of recent matches (30 games).

Karmiotissa let in goals in 63% of their last 30 matches.

Scoring Trends

AEK Larnaca VS Karmiotissa
2 Goals Scored 0.5
0.75 Goals Conceded 2
75% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

AEK Larnaca

(Home)
26 Oct
AEK Larnaca
2 : 0
Omonia
21 Oct
AEK Larnaca
3 : 2
Akritas Chloraka
18 Oct
Aris Limassol
1 : 1
AEK Larnaca
12 Oct
AEK Larnaca
1 : 0
Omonia Aradippou
03 Oct
AEK Larnaca
3 : 0
Apollon Limassol
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Karmiotissa

(Away)
25 Oct
Karmiotissa
0 : 5
Apollon Limassol
17 Oct
Krasava
2 : 1
Karmiotissa
09 Oct
Karmiotissa
0 : 3
Omonia
20 Sept
Aris Limassol
0 : 0
Karmiotissa
12 Sept
Karmiotissa
1 : 1
Omonia Aradippou
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 AEK Larnaca 7 5 1 1 13:5 16
2 Apollon Limassol 7 4 3 0 19:8 15
3 AEL Limassol 7 5 0 2 11:11 15
4 Omonia 7 3 3 1 13:6 12
5 Pafos 7 3 3 1 7:3 12
6 Aris Limassol 7 3 3 1 10:9 12
7 APOEL 7 3 2 2 16:9 11
8 Omonia 29th May 7 2 2 3 12:13 8
9 Anorthosis 7 2 0 5 6:13 6
10 Ol. Nicosia 7 0 6 1 11:12 6
11 Omonia Aradippou 7 1 3 3 4:8 6
12 Nea Salamis 7 1 2 4 11:15 5
13 Krasava 7 1 1 5 6:15 4
14 Karmiotissa 7 0 3 4 4:16 3
Promotion - Cyprus League (Championship Group)
Relegation - Cyprus League (Relegation Group)