Sport Picks

Stadium Background

AEK Larnaca vs Ol. Nicosia

Cyprus Cyprus

Cyprus League 2025/2026 AEK Arena, Larnaca
Our Tip

Match Events

45' Event
Tavares J.
45'
Vieirinha
46'
Sub
Joao Mario In: Pikis I.
Out: Joao Mario

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Cyprus League 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
AEK Larnaca
20%
Draws
47%
Ol. Nicosia
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Ol. Nicosia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

20% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to AEK Larnaca lately — more wins on the board than Ol. Nicosia.
  • AEK Larnaca are the model's pick here, at 42%.
  • Regular Cyprus League 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.6%
AEK Larnaca Clean Sheet 16%
Ol. Nicosia Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric AEK Larnaca Ol. Nicosia
Matches Played 33 29
Wins 15 10
Draws 8 7
Losses 10 12
Goals Scored 1.61 1.1
Goals Conceded 1.09 1.38
Expected Goals (xG) 1.35 1.49
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 1, 2026 Cyprus League
AEK Larnaca vs Ol. Nicosia
1:1
Nov 22, 2025 Cyprus League
Ol. Nicosia vs AEK Larnaca
1:4
Jan 20, 2023 Cyprus League
Ol. Nicosia vs AEK Larnaca
0:2
Oct 17, 2022 Cyprus League
AEK Larnaca vs Ol. Nicosia
4:2
Feb 9, 2022 Cyprus League
Ol. Nicosia vs AEK Larnaca
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

AEK Larnaca Compare

Top Goalscorer Saborit E.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.04
Avg xA / game 0.68

Ol. Nicosia Compare

Top Goalscorer Tavares J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.83

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

AEK Larnaca 41 / 100
Ol. Nicosia 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
AEK Larnaca Ol. Nicosia

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

AEK Larnaca's goal record stands at 76% scoring rate across 33 recent games.

Ol. Nicosia's defensive record shows goals conceded in 66% of 29 matches.

These sides typically produce 3.00 goals when they meet.

AEK Larnaca has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

AEK Larnaca VS Ol. Nicosia
1.5 Goals Scored 1.6
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.2
63% Over 1.5 60%
50% Over 2.5 60%
38% Over 3.5 40%

Recent Form & Match History

AEK Larnaca

(Home)
21 Aug
AEK Larnaca
5 : 2
Omonia 29th May
12 Aug
Asteras Tripolis
3 : 1
AEK Larnaca
08 Aug
AEK Larnaca
0 : 1
Omonia Aradippou
07 Aug
AEK Larnaca
3 : 0
Karmiotissa
30 Jul
Beitar Jerusalem
3 : 3
AEK Larnaca
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Ol. Nicosia

(Away)
22 Aug
Ol. Nicosia
3 : 3
APOEL
08 Aug
Ol. Nicosia
1 : 2
Omonia 29th May
15 May
Ol. Nicosia
1 : 0
Anorthosis
09 May
AEL Limassol
1 : 3
Ol. Nicosia
01 May
Ol. Nicosia
2 : 1
Omonia Aradippou
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Omonia 26 19 4 3 63:17 61
2 AEK Larnaca 26 16 5 5 49:22 53
3 Apollon Limassol 26 16 5 5 36:22 53
4 Pafos 26 16 3 7 53:24 51
5 APOEL 26 13 6 7 45:27 45
6 Aris Limassol 26 12 7 7 48:26 43
7 Omonia Aradippou 26 10 4 12 23:31 34
8 AEL Limassol 26 10 3 13 31:38 33
9 Anorthosis 26 7 11 8 23:33 32
10 Krasava 26 8 4 14 26:36 28
11 Ol. Nicosia 26 6 10 10 22:37 28
12 Akritas Chloraka 26 7 5 14 23:48 26
13 Achnas 26 7 2 17 25:44 23
14 Paralimni 26 0 1 25 5:67 1
Promotion - Cyprus League 2025/2026 (Championship Group)
Relegation - Cyprus League 2025/2026 (Relegation Group)