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AEK Larnaca vs Pafos

Cyprus Cyprus

Cyprus League 2025/2026 AEK Arena, Larnaca
AEK Larnaca Logo

AEK Larnaca

2 - 2
FT
Pafos Logo

Pafos

Our Tip

Match Events

22' Event
Bajic R.
31' Event
Pepe
34'
David Luiz
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Cyprus League 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 2-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

35%
AEK Larnaca
15%
Draws
50%
Pafos
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Pafos

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence
  • AEK Larnaca haven't matched Pafos's recent run of results.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • Regular Cyprus League 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.6%
AEK Larnaca Clean Sheet 12%
Pafos Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric AEK Larnaca Pafos
Matches Played 34 36
Wins 15 17
Draws 8 11
Losses 11 8
Goals Scored 1.65 1.72
Goals Conceded 1.12 1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 13, 2026 Cyprus League
AEK Larnaca vs Pafos
0:1
May 16, 2026 Cyprus League
AEK Larnaca vs Pafos
2:2
Apr 18, 2026 Cyprus League
Pafos vs AEK Larnaca
1:1
Jan 25, 2026 Cyprus League
Pafos vs AEK Larnaca
1:2
Oct 30, 2025 Super Cup
Pafos vs AEK Larnaca
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

AEK Larnaca Compare

Top Goalscorer Bajic R.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.88

Pafos Compare

Top Goalscorer Pepe
1 Goals
Assists Leader Odefalk W.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

AEK Larnaca 29 / 100
Pafos 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
AEK Larnaca Pafos

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick AEK Larnaca Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: AEK Larnaca scored in 74% of their last 34 outings.

These sides typically produce 2.60 goals when they meet.

Solid form: AEK Larnaca remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Pafos has conceded goals in 58% of their last 36 outings.

Scoring Trends

AEK Larnaca VS Pafos
2.38 Goals Scored 2
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.13
75% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 50%
63% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

AEK Larnaca

(Home)
13 Sept
AEK Larnaca
0 : 1
Pafos
06 Sept
Nea Salamis
1 : 4
AEK Larnaca
29 Aug
AEK Larnaca
3 : 1
APOEL
21 Aug
AEK Larnaca
5 : 2
Omonia 29th May
12 Aug
Asteras Tripolis
3 : 1
AEK Larnaca
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Pafos

(Away)
13 Sept
AEK Larnaca
0 : 1
Pafos
07 Sept
Pafos
0 : 0
Ol. Nicosia
03 Sept
Omonia
0 : 1
Pafos
30 Aug
Karmiotissa
0 : 3
Pafos
27 Aug
Pafos
4 : 2
Dinamo City
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Omonia 36 27 6 3 88:24 87
2 AEK Larnaca 36 20 9 7 62:33 69
3 Apollon Limassol 36 20 7 9 52:41 67
4 Pafos 36 18 8 10 66:38 62
5 APOEL 36 15 7 14 53:45 52
6 Aris Limassol 36 14 9 13 61:45 51
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)