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AEK Larnaca vs Pafos

Cyprus Cyprus

Cyprus League AEK Arena, Larnaca
Our Tip

Match Events

22' Event
Bajic R.
31' Event
Pepe
34'
David Luiz

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Cyprus League matchup, with the score ending 2-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

42%
AEK Larnaca
20%
Draws
38%
Pafos
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: AEK Larnaca

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

67% / Medium Confidence
  • AEK Larnaca haven't matched Pafos's recent run of results.
  • Model gives AEK Larnaca a 42% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Cyprus League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.2%
AEK Larnaca Clean Sheet 18%
Pafos Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric AEK Larnaca Pafos
Matches Played 35 38
Wins 18 20
Draws 8 9
Losses 9 9
Goals Scored 1.5 1.25
Goals Conceded 1.38 0.75
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.38 0.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 16, 2026 Cyprus League
AEK Larnaca vs Pafos
2:2
Apr 18, 2026 Cyprus League
Pafos vs AEK Larnaca
1:1
Jan 25, 2026 Cyprus League
Pafos vs AEK Larnaca
1:2
Oct 30, 2025 Super Cup
Pafos vs AEK Larnaca
1:2
Oct 5, 2025 Cyprus League
AEK Larnaca vs Pafos
2:4

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

AEK Larnaca Compare

Top Goalscorer Bajic R.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

Pafos Compare

Top Goalscorer Pepe
1 Goals
Assists Leader Odefalk W.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

AEK Larnaca 41 / 100
Pafos 37 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
AEK Larnaca Pafos

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: AEK Larnaca scored in 80% of their last 35 outings.

These sides typically produce 3.60 goals when they meet.

Defensive concern: Pafos conceded in 61% of 38 recent games.

AEK Larnaca has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

AEK Larnaca VS Pafos
1.5 Goals Scored 1.25
1.38 Goals Conceded 0.75
63% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 25%
38% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

AEK Larnaca

(Home)
16 Jul
Apollon Limassol
0 : 0
AEK Larnaca
10 Jul
Ajax
1 : 0
AEK Larnaca
07 Jul
PAOK
3 : 2
AEK Larnaca
04 Jul
Helmond Sport
1 : 2
AEK Larnaca
22 May
Aris Limassol
3 : 4
AEK Larnaca
Page 1 of 7

Pafos

(Away)
16 Jul
Slovan Bratislava
3 : 2
Pafos
12 Jul
Jagiellonia
1 : 0
Pafos
08 Jul
Jablonec
0 : 0
Pafos
03 Jul
Cracovia
1 : 2
Pafos
29 May
Apollon Limassol
0 : 2
Pafos
Page 1 of 8

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Omonia36276388:2487
2AEK Larnaca36209762:3369
3Apollon Limassol36207952:4167
4Pafos361881066:3862
5APOEL361571453:4552
6Aris Limassol361491361:4551
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)