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AEK Larnaca vs Pafos - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Cyprus Cyprus

Cyprus League AEK Arena, Larnaca
Our Tip

Match Events

12'
Quina D.
32'
Sunjic I.
59'
Sub
Pileas K. In: Olivan B.
Out: Pileas K.

AI Match Summary

The Cyprus League game between AEK Larnaca and Pafos finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Pafos.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

48%
AEK Larnaca
35%
Draws
17%
Pafos
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: AEK Larnaca

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

48% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and AEK Larnaca come out ahead of Pafos on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans AEK Larnaca's way, sitting at 60%.
  • Regular Cyprus League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 62.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 33.2%
AEK Larnaca Clean Sheet 68%
Pafos Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric AEK Larnaca Pafos
Matches Played 32 29
Wins 15 10
Draws 8 11
Losses 9 8
Goals Scored 1.66 1.41
Goals Conceded 1.19 1.14
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 13, 2026 Cyprus League
AEK Larnaca vs Pafos
0:1
May 16, 2026 Cyprus League
AEK Larnaca vs Pafos
2:2
Apr 18, 2026 Cyprus League
Pafos vs AEK Larnaca
1:1
Jan 25, 2026 Cyprus League
Pafos vs AEK Larnaca
1:2
Oct 30, 2025 Super Cup
Pafos vs AEK Larnaca
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

AEK Larnaca Compare

Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.66

Pafos Compare

Top Goalscorer Dragomir V.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.42

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

AEK Larnaca 68 / 100
Pafos 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
AEK Larnaca Pafos

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick AEK Larnaca Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

AEK Larnaca has registered 5 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

AEK Larnaca's goal record stands at 78% scoring rate across 32 recent games.

Pafos let in goals in 62% of their last 29 matches.

These sides typically produce 2.60 goals when they meet.

Scoring Trends

AEK Larnaca VS Pafos
1.75 Goals Scored 0.75
0.75 Goals Conceded 0.88
75% Over 1.5 50%
50% Over 2.5 25%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

AEK Larnaca

(Home)
31 Oct
Krasava
2 : 2
AEK Larnaca
26 Oct
AEK Larnaca
2 : 0
Omonia
21 Oct
AEK Larnaca
3 : 2
Akritas Chloraka
18 Oct
Aris Limassol
1 : 1
AEK Larnaca
12 Oct
AEK Larnaca
1 : 0
Omonia Aradippou
Page 1 of 7

Pafos

(Away)
31 Oct
Apollon Limassol
2 : 2
Pafos
26 Oct
Nea Salamis
0 : 0
Pafos
22 Oct
Pafos
1 : 1
Riga FC
19 Oct
Pafos
0 : 0
APOEL
15 Oct
Atalanta
3 : 1
Pafos
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 AEK Larnaca 8 5 2 1 15:7 17
2 Apollon Limassol 8 4 4 0 21:10 16
3 Omonia 8 4 3 1 15:6 15
4 Aris Limassol 8 4 3 1 12:10 15
5 AEL Limassol 8 5 0 3 11:13 15
6 APOEL 8 4 2 2 18:10 14
7 Pafos 8 3 4 1 9:5 13
8 Omonia 29th May 8 3 2 3 13:13 11
9 Karmiotissa 8 1 3 4 5:16 6
10 Anorthosis 8 2 0 6 7:15 6
11 Omonia Aradippou 8 1 3 4 5:10 6
12 Ol. Nicosia 8 0 6 2 11:13 6
13 Nea Salamis 8 1 2 5 11:16 5
14 Krasava 8 1 2 5 8:17 5
Promotion - Cyprus League (Championship Group)
Relegation - Cyprus League (Relegation Group)