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AEK vs Aris

Greece Greece

Super League Allwyn Arena, Athens
Sat, Sep 5, 2026
VS
03:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

AEK host Aris in the Super League. This one's hard to separate. Recent numbers: AEK at 1.38 goals for, 0.63 against; Aris at 2.14 for, 0.71 against. Past meetings favor AEK slightly — 2-0-3 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Jan 11, 2026, ending 1:1. Model xG sits at 1.04 vs 1.39, favoring AEK. The model calls this a Draw — both sides look evenly matched.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

41%
AEK
15%
Draws
44%
Aris
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Aris

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Medium Confidence
  • AEK have won more games recently than Aris.
  • AEK are the model's pick here, at 42%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.4%
AEK Clean Sheet 17%
Aris Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric AEK Aris
Matches Played 33 29
Wins 20 10
Draws 9 12
Losses 4 7
Goals Scored 1.38 2.14
Goals Conceded 0.63 0.71
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 2.14
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.63 0.71

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 11, 2026 Super League
Aris vs AEK
1:1
Nov 23, 2025 Super League
AEK vs Aris
1:0
Mar 9, 2025 Super League
Aris vs AEK
0:0
Dec 3, 2024 Greek Cup
Aris vs AEK
1:1
Nov 30, 2024 Super League
AEK vs Aris
4:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

AEK 41 / 100
Aris 37 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
AEK Aris

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

AEK scored in 82% of their last 33 games.

Aris let in goals in 62% of their last 29 matches.

Historical meetings average 1.80 goals per match.

AEK has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

AEK VS Aris
1.38 Goals Scored 2.14
0.63 Goals Conceded 0.71
75% Over 1.5 86%
50% Over 2.5 71%
0% Over 3.5 43%

Recent Form & Match History

AEK

(Home)
08 Aug
AEK
4 : 0
Athens Kallithea
02 Aug
AEK
3 : 0
St. Truiden
29 Jul
AEK
1 : 2
Samsunspor
26 Jul
Zwolle
2 : 3
AEK
18 Jul
Groningen
1 : 2
AEK
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Aris

(Away)
08 Aug
Aris
2 : 2
Panserraikos
30 Jul
Monza
1 : 3
Aris
17 May
Aris
3 : 0
Levadiakos
13 May
Volos
1 : 2
Aris
10 May
Aris
3 : 1
OFI Crete
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Kalamata 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
2 Iraklis FC 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
3 OFI Crete 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
4 Panathinaikos 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
5 AEK 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
6 Olympiacos Piraeus 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
7 Aris 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
8 Asteras Tripolis 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
9 PAOK 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
10 Levadiakos 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
11 Atromitos 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
12 Panetolikos 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
13 Kifisia 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
14 Volos 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
Promotion - Super League (Championship Group)
Promotion - Super League (Conference League Group)
Relegation - Super League (Relegation Group)