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Stadium Background

AEK vs Aris

Greece Greece

Super League Allwyn Arena, Athens
5 - 0
FT
Our Tip

Match Events

11' Event
Varga B.
Assist: Majer L.
27'
Majer L.
40'
Rota L.

AI Match Summary

AEK in this Super League matchup, with the score ending 5-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored AEK.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
AEK
30%
Draws
19%
Aris
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: AEK

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • AEK have won more games recently than Aris.
  • AEK are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.2%
AEK Clean Sheet 20%
Aris Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric AEK Aris
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 18 12
Draws 9 11
Losses 4 7
Goals Scored 2.13 1.3
Goals Conceded 0.81 1.3
Expected Goals (xG) 2.38 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 5, 2026 Super League
AEK vs Aris
5:0
Jan 11, 2026 Super League
Aris vs AEK
1:1
Nov 23, 2025 Super League
AEK vs Aris
1:0
Mar 9, 2025 Super League
Aris vs AEK
0:0
Dec 3, 2024 Greek Cup
Aris vs AEK
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

AEK Compare

Top Goalscorer Varga B.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Marin R.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.83
Avg xA / game 1.19

Aris Compare

Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

AEK 85 / 100
Aris 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
AEK Aris

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick AEK Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

AEK scored in 84% of their last 31 games.

AEK went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

Defensive concern: Aris conceded in 63% of 30 recent games.

H2H data points to 2.00 goals as a typical output.

Scoring Trends

AEK VS Aris
2.38 Goals Scored 1.5
0.5 Goals Conceded 2.38
75% Over 1.5 100%
50% Over 2.5 63%
50% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

AEK

(Home)
20 Sept
Volos
1 : 2
AEK
17 Sept
AEK
8 : 1
Panserraikos
13 Sept
Asteras Tripolis
1 : 1
AEK
08 Sept
AEK
1 : 0
LASK Linz
05 Sept
AEK
5 : 0
Aris
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Aris

(Away)
19 Sept
Aris
0 : 0
Iraklis FC
16 Sept
Aris
1 : 0
Marko
13 Sept
PAOK
2 : 0
Aris
10 Sept
Asteras Tripolis
1 : 1
Aris
05 Sept
AEK
5 : 0
Aris
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Panathinaikos 5 5 0 0 12:2 15
2 PAOK 5 4 0 1 12:5 12
3 AEK 5 3 2 0 13:3 11
4 OFI Crete 5 3 1 1 8:4 10
5 Olympiacos Piraeus 5 3 1 1 4:2 10
6 Panetolikos 5 3 0 2 8:7 9
7 Aris 5 2 1 2 5:10 7
8 Iraklis FC 5 1 3 1 4:6 6
9 Kifisia 5 1 2 2 4:7 5
10 Kalamata 5 1 1 3 6:8 4
11 Atromitos 5 0 2 3 4:7 2
12 Asteras Tripolis 5 0 2 3 4:9 2
13 Volos 5 0 2 3 4:9 2
14 Levadiakos 5 0 1 4 0:9 1
Promotion - Super League (Championship Group)
Promotion - Super League (Conference League Group)
Relegation - Super League (Relegation Group)