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AEK vs Panathinaikos

Greece Greece

Super League 2025/2026 Allwyn Arena, Athens
AEK Logo

AEK

2 - 1
FT
Panathinaikos Logo

Panathinaikos

Our Tip

Match Events

18'
Moukoudi H.
34'
Relvas F.
42'
Calabria D.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Super League 2025/2026 game between AEK and Panathinaikos finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward AEK.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
AEK
15%
Draws
46%
Panathinaikos
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Panathinaikos

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

39% / Low Confidence
  • AEK's 2.17 goals per match outpaces what Panathinaikos have produced (1.83).
  • Win probability leans AEK's way, sitting at 70%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.4%
AEK Clean Sheet 17%
Panathinaikos Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric AEK Panathinaikos
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 17 17
Draws 8 7
Losses 4 5
Goals Scored 2.17 1.83
Goals Conceded 0.79 1.03
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 10, 2026 Super League
AEK vs Panathinaikos
2:1
May 3, 2026 Super League
Panathinaikos vs AEK
0:0
Jan 18, 2026 Super League
AEK vs Panathinaikos
4:0
Nov 30, 2025 Super League
Panathinaikos vs AEK
2:3
May 4, 2025 Super League
AEK vs Panathinaikos
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

AEK Compare

Top Goalscorer Zini
1 Goals
Assists Leader Joao Mario
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

Panathinaikos Compare

Top Goalscorer Tetteh A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

AEK 66 / 100
Panathinaikos 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
AEK Panathinaikos

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick AEK Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

AEK's goal record stands at 83% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Solid form: AEK remains unbeaten in 5 of 5 recent matches.

Panathinaikos has conceded goals in 66% of their last 29 outings.

These sides typically produce 3.00 goals when they meet.

Scoring Trends

AEK VS Panathinaikos
2.38 Goals Scored 2.25
0.5 Goals Conceded 0.63
75% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 63%
50% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

AEK

(Home)
17 Sept
AEK
8 : 1
Panserraikos
13 Sept
Asteras Tripolis
1 : 1
AEK
08 Sept
AEK
1 : 0
LASK Linz
05 Sept
AEK
5 : 0
Aris
02 Sept
Chrisoupolis
0 : 2
AEK
Page 1 of 6

Panathinaikos

(Away)
16 Sept
Kifisia
0 : 2
Panathinaikos
13 Sept
Panathinaikos
3 : 0
Panetolikos
10 Sept
Panathinaikos
3 : 1
Kifisia
06 Sept
Panathinaikos
3 : 1
PAOK
03 Sept
Panathinaikos
1 : 0
Niki Volos
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 AEK 32 21 9 2 57:20 72
2 Olympiacos Piraeus 32 19 9 4 51:17 66
3 PAOK 32 18 10 4 59:25 64
4 Panathinaikos 32 14 10 8 47:33 52
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)