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AEK vs Panathinaikos

Greece Greece

Super League 2025/2026 Allwyn Arena, Athens
Our Tip

Match Events

18'
Moukoudi H.
34'
Relvas F.
42'
Calabria D.

AI Match Summary

The Super League 2025/2026 game between AEK and Panathinaikos finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward AEK.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
AEK
39%
Draws
30%
Panathinaikos
Draw rate projection: 39% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / Medium Confidence
  • AEK carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.8%
AEK Clean Sheet 19%
Panathinaikos Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric AEK Panathinaikos
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 18 12
Draws 9 9
Losses 3 8
Goals Scored 1.38 1.63
Goals Conceded 0.88 1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.88 1.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 10, 2026 Super League
AEK vs Panathinaikos
2:1
May 3, 2026 Super League
Panathinaikos vs AEK
0:0
Jan 18, 2026 Super League
AEK vs Panathinaikos
4:0
Nov 30, 2025 Super League
Panathinaikos vs AEK
2:3
May 4, 2025 Super League
AEK vs Panathinaikos
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

AEK Compare

Top Goalscorer Zini
1 Goals
Assists Leader Joao Mario
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Panathinaikos Compare

Top Goalscorer Tetteh A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

AEK 32 / 100
Panathinaikos 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
AEK Panathinaikos

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick PAN Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

AEK's goal record stands at 80% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Solid form: AEK remains unbeaten in 5 of 5 recent matches.

Panathinaikos has conceded goals in 66% of their last 29 outings.

These sides typically produce 3.00 goals when they meet.

Scoring Trends

AEK VS Panathinaikos
1.38 Goals Scored 1.63
0.88 Goals Conceded 1
75% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

AEK

(Home)
18 Jul
Groningen
1 : 2
AEK
15 Jul
Vitesse
0 : 0
AEK
12 Jul
De Graafschap
1 : 2
AEK
17 May
AEK
1 : 1
Olympiacos Piraeus
13 May
PAOK
1 : 1
AEK
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Panathinaikos

(Away)
15 Jul
Rapid Vienna
4 : 1
Panathinaikos
11 Jul
Panathinaikos
3 : 0
Grasshoppers
04 Jul
Ajax
1 : 3
Panathinaikos
01 Jul
Helmond Sport
0 : 4
Panathinaikos
17 May
Panathinaikos
2 : 2
PAOK
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League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1AEK32219257:2072
2Olympiacos Piraeus32199451:1766
3PAOK321810459:2564
4Panathinaikos321410847:3352
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)