Sport Picks
AEL Larissa vs Asteras Tripolis
Greece
Super League 2025/2026 AEL FC Arena, Larissa 
Match Events
40'
40'
Bartolo J.
55'
55'
Sagal A.
(Penalty)
66'
66'
Sub
Emmanouilidis D. In: Ketu K.
Out: Emmanouilidis D.
AI Match Summary
Neither side could be separated in this Super League 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-1.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
34%
35%
31%
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
34%
/ Low Confidence
- AEL Larissa haven't matched Asteras Tripolis's recent run of results.
- 34% — that's where the model lands on AEL Larissa taking it.
- Regular Super League 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34.8%
AEL Larissa Clean Sheet 68%
Asteras Tripolis Clean Sheet 12%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | AEL Larissa | Asteras Tripolis |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 28 |
| Wins | 6 | 7 |
| Draws | 12 | 9 |
| Losses | 12 | 12 |
| Goals Scored | 1.07 | 0.93 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.33 | 1.29 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.19 | 1.25 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
May 9, 2026 Super League
AEL Larissa vs Asteras Tripolis
1:1
Apr 4, 2026 Super League
Asteras Tripolis vs AEL Larissa
3:1
Mar 14, 2026 Super League
AEL Larissa vs Asteras Tripolis
1:1
Sep 14, 2025 Super League
Asteras Tripolis vs AEL Larissa
2:2
Jan 23, 2021 Super League
Asteras Tripolis vs AEL Larissa
1:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
AEL Larissa Compare
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59
Asteras Tripolis Compare
Top Goalscorer Bartolo J.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
AEL Larissa 59 / 100
Asteras Tripolis 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
AEL Larissa Asteras Tripolis
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick AEL Larissa Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
AEL Larissa's goal record stands at 73% scoring rate across 30 recent games.
Asteras Tripolis has conceded goals in 75% of their last 28 outings.
These sides typically produce 2.60 goals when they meet.
Recent resilience: AEL Larissa stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
AEL Larissa VS Asteras Tripolis
1.38 Goals Scored 1.5
1 Goals Conceded 1
75% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 13%
Recent Form & Match History
AEL Larissa
(Home) 17 Aug
Athens Kallithea
1 : 3 AEL Larissa
11 Aug
AO Trikala
0 : 4 AEL Larissa
06 Aug
AEL Larissa
0 : 0 Zakynthos
21 May
Kifisia
3 : 2 AEL Larissa
16 May
AEL Larissa
2 : 1 Atromitos
Page 1 of 6
06 Aug
AEL Larissa
0 : 0 Zakynthos
16 May
AEL Larissa
2 : 1 Atromitos
09 May
AEL Larissa
1 : 1 Asteras Tripolis
26 Apr
AEL Larissa
0 : 1 Panserraikos
22 Apr
AEL Larissa
1 : 1 Kifisia
Page 1 of 3
Asteras Tripolis
(Away) 12 Aug
Asteras Tripolis
3 : 1 AEK Larnaca
31 Jul
Den Haag
0 : 0 Asteras Tripolis
28 Jul
Sparta Rotterdam
1 : 1 Asteras Tripolis
21 May
Panetolikos
1 : 2 Asteras Tripolis
16 May
Asteras Tripolis
0 : 0 Kifisia
Page 1 of 6
31 Jul
Den Haag
0 : 0 Asteras Tripolis
28 Jul
Sparta Rotterdam
1 : 1 Asteras Tripolis
21 May
Panetolikos
1 : 2 Asteras Tripolis
09 May
AEL Larissa
1 : 1 Asteras Tripolis
26 Apr
Atromitos
2 : 1 Asteras Tripolis
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AEK | 26 | 18 | 6 | 2 | 49:17 | 60 |
| 2 | Olympiacos Piraeus | 26 | 17 | 7 | 2 | 45:11 | 58 |
| 3 | PAOK | 26 | 17 | 6 | 3 | 52:17 | 57 |
| 4 | Panathinaikos | 26 | 14 | 7 | 5 | 44:26 | 49 |
| 5 | Levadiakos | 26 | 12 | 6 | 8 | 51:37 | 42 |
| 6 | OFI Crete | 26 | 10 | 2 | 14 | 34:45 | 32 |
| 7 | Volos | 26 | 9 | 4 | 13 | 26:38 | 31 |
| 8 | Aris | 26 | 6 | 12 | 8 | 20:27 | 30 |
| 9 | Atromitos | 26 | 7 | 8 | 11 | 26:30 | 29 |
| 10 | Kifisia | 26 | 6 | 9 | 11 | 32:42 | 27 |
| 11 | Panetolikos | 26 | 7 | 5 | 14 | 24:38 | 26 |
| 12 | AEL Larissa | 26 | 4 | 11 | 11 | 22:39 | 23 |
| 13 | Panserraikos | 26 | 4 | 5 | 17 | 16:55 | 17 |
| 14 | Asteras Tripolis | 26 | 3 | 8 | 15 | 22:41 | 17 |
Promotion - Super League 2025/2026 (Championship Group)
Promotion - Super League 2025/2026 (Conference League Group)
Relegation - Super League 2025/2026 (Relegation Group)
