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AEL Larissa vs Atromitos

Greece Greece

Super League 2025/2026 AEL FC Arena, Larissa
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Match Events

13' Event
Macon Y.
34' Event
Tupta L.
Assist: Sagal A.
38'
Tsakmakis D.

AI Match Summary

AEL Larissa in this Super League 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored AEL Larissa.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

22%
AEL Larissa
28%
Draws
50%
Atromitos
Draw rate projection: 28% Favored: Atromitos

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

76% / High Confidence
  • AEL Larissa haven't matched Atromitos's recent run of results.
  • 50% — that's where the model lands on Atromitos taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.2%
AEL Larissa Clean Sheet 14%
Atromitos Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric AEL Larissa Atromitos
Matches Played 32 29
Wins 5 11
Draws 12 7
Losses 15 11
Goals Scored 1 1.63
Goals Conceded 1.63 1.38
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.63 1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 16, 2026 Super League
AEL Larissa vs Atromitos
2:1
Apr 18, 2026 Super League
Atromitos vs AEL Larissa
3:2
Dec 21, 2025 Super League
AEL Larissa vs Atromitos
0:0
Dec 3, 2025 Greek Cup
AEL Larissa vs Atromitos
0:1
Sep 29, 2025 Super League
Atromitos vs AEL Larissa
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

AEL Larissa Compare

Top Goalscorer Macon Y.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Tupta L.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Atromitos Compare

Top Goalscorer Baku M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

AEL Larissa 23 / 100
Atromitos 47 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
AEL Larissa Atromitos

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick ATR Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

AEL Larissa's goal record stands at 72% scoring rate across 32 recent games.

H2H data points to 2.20 goals as a typical output.

Solid form: AEL Larissa remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Difficult form: Atromitos registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

AEL Larissa VS Atromitos
1 Goals Scored 1.63
1.63 Goals Conceded 1.38
88% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

AEL Larissa

(Home)
21 May
Kifisia
3 : 2
AEL Larissa
16 May
AEL Larissa
2 : 1
Atromitos
12 May
Panetolikos
1 : 1
AEL Larissa
09 May
AEL Larissa
1 : 1
Asteras Tripolis
02 May
Panserraikos
1 : 1
AEL Larissa
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Atromitos

(Away)
21 May
Atromitos
6 : 0
Panserraikos
16 May
AEL Larissa
2 : 1
Atromitos
12 May
Kifisia
0 : 3
Atromitos
09 May
Atromitos
1 : 2
Panetolikos
02 May
Asteras Tripolis
4 : 2
Atromitos
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League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
9Atromitos3612101449:4246
10Kifisia369141340:5141
11Asteras Tripolis368121636:4936
12Panetolikos36991835:5136
13AEL Larissa365151634:5630
14Panserraikos36782125:7329
Relegation - Super League 2 2026/2027 (Main)