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AEL Limassol vs Ermis

World World

Club Friendly 2023
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

The Club Friendly 2023 game between AEL Limassol and Ermis finished 3-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward AEL Limassol.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

45%
AEL Limassol
15%
Draws
40%
Ermis
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: AEL Limassol

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

45% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and AEL Limassol come out ahead of Ermis on wins alone.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and AEL Limassol have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.4%
AEL Limassol Clean Sheet 19%
Ermis Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric AEL Limassol Ermis
Matches Played 31 29
Wins 14 6
Draws 5 2
Losses 12 21
Goals Scored 1.45 0.79
Goals Conceded 1.35 2.38
Expected Goals (xG) 1.02 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 13, 2023 Club Friendly
AEL Limassol vs Ermis
3:0
Oct 6, 2022 Cyprus Cup
AEL Limassol vs Ermis
1:0
Jan 29, 2021 Cyprus League
Ermis vs AEL Limassol
2:2
Oct 31, 2020 Cyprus League
AEL Limassol vs Ermis
2:1
Feb 27, 2019 Cyprus Cup
Ermis vs AEL Limassol
2:3

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

AEL Limassol 31 / 100
Ermis 31 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
AEL Limassol Ermis

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick AEL Limassol Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

AEL Limassol found the back of the net in 84% of recent matches (31 games).

Ermis has conceded goals in 90% of their last 29 outings.

These sides typically produce 3.20 goals when they meet.

Recent resilience: AEL Limassol stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

AEL Limassol VS Ermis
1.38 Goals Scored 1
1.5 Goals Conceded 0.67
88% Over 1.5 67%
75% Over 2.5 33%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

AEL Limassol

(Home)
18 Sept
Pafos
0 : 2
AEL Limassol
11 Sept
AEL Limassol
2 : 1
Nea Salamis
06 Sept
APOEL
6 : 0
AEL Limassol
30 Aug
AEL Limassol
2 : 0
Anorthosis
22 Aug
AEL Limassol
2 : 2
Aris Limassol
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Ermis

(Away)
20 Sept
Ermis
1 : 2
PAEEK
11 Sept
Ermis
2 : 0
Akritas Chloraka
26 Apr
Ermis
2 : 1
PO Xylotymbou 2006
20 Apr
ENAD
1 : 2
Ermis
14 Apr
Ermis
1 : 2
M.E.A.P. Nisou
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