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Afan Lido vs Cwmbran Celtic

Wales Wales

Cymru South 2025/2026
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Afan Lido play Cwmbran Celtic in the Cymru South 2025/2026. Afan Lido are favorites here. Recently, Afan Lido averaged 1.19 goals scored and 1.9 conceded. Cwmbran Celtic averaged 0.9 goals scored and 2.6 conceded. In past meetings, Afan Lido won 3, Cwmbran Celtic won 1, and they drew 1. Their last match on Apr 3, 2026 ended 4:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 2.44 for Afan Lido and 1.13 for Cwmbran Celtic. This points to a Afan Lido double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

66%
Afan Lido
17%
Draws
17%
Cwmbran Celtic
Draw rate projection: 17% Favored: Afan Lido

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

93% / Very High Confidence
  • Afan Lido picked up more points recently compared to Cwmbran Celtic.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (2.44 vs 1.13 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 64%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 89%
Over 1.5 Goals 79%
Over 2.5 Goals 64%
Over 3.5 Goals 38%
Over 4.5 Goals 19%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 59%
Afan Lido Clean Sheet 21%
Cwmbran Celtic Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 71%
Second Half Goal 75%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Afan Lido Cwmbran Celtic
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 10 1
Draws 3 7
Losses 18 22
Goals Scored 1.19 0.9
Goals Conceded 1.9 2.6
Expected Goals (xG) 1.88 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.38 3.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 3, 2026 Cymru South
Afan Lido vs Cwmbran Celtic
4:1
Aug 15, 2025 Cymru South
Cwmbran Celtic vs Afan Lido
1:4
Mar 22, 2025 Cymru South
Cwmbran Celtic vs Afan Lido
1:1
Nov 8, 2024 Cymru South
Afan Lido vs Cwmbran Celtic
4:1
Feb 17, 2024 Cymru South
Cwmbran Celtic vs Afan Lido
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Afan Lido Compare

Top Goalscorer McCreesh L.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Griffiths L.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.45
Avg xA / game 0.94

Cwmbran Celtic Compare

Top Goalscorer Thomas D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Afan Lido 64 / 100
Cwmbran Celtic 17 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Afan Lido Cwmbran Celtic

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Afan Lido Win (1)
Secondary Pick Afan Lido & Over 2.5
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +13.5%
1.72
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +10.1%
1.72
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Afan Lido attacking → ← attacking Cwmbran Celtic

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Afan Lido scored in 61% of their last 31 games.

Cwmbran Celtic let in goals in 93% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 3.80 goals.

Afan Lido went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Cwmbran Celtic lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

33 Points in last 5 10
1.88 Goals expected (xG) 0.88
1.38 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 3.00

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Trefelin30253283:1778
2Cambrian United30244275:2076
3Ammanford Town30179449:2660
4Caerau Ely30176766:3457
5Carmarthen Town301112745:3845
6Aberystwyth301351235:3844
7Cardiff Draconians301241450:4840
8Llantwit Major309101144:4737
9Treowen301071351:6337
10Newport City309101136:4837
11Pontypridd United30971446:5134
12Afan Lido30931832:5730
13Trethomas Bluebirds306111345:6229
14Baglan Dragons305101526:5225
15Ynyshir Albions30581727:5623
16Cwmbran Celtic30172225:7810