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AFC Emley vs Workington

England England

NPL Premier Division
Tue, Sep 29, 2026
VS
06:45 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

AFC Emley host Workington in the NPL Premier Division. This looks like a genuine coin-flip fixture. AFC Emley have averaged 1.24 scored and 1.45 conceded recently, against Workington's 1.46 scored and 1.21 conceded. These two haven't met recently, so form does most of the talking. xG projections (1.38 - 1.69) back Workington to edge this. The model's pick is Away (2) to win or Over 2.5 goals.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

20%
AFC Emley
20%
Draws
60%
Workington
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Workington

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

60% / High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Workington come out ahead of AFC Emley on wins alone.
  • Model gives Workington a 60% chance of winning this.
  • Regular NPL Premier Division form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.6%
AFC Emley Clean Sheet 13%
Workington Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric AFC Emley Workington
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 10 13
Draws 9 7
Losses 10 8
Goals Scored 1.24 1.46
Goals Conceded 1.45 1.21
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

AFC Emley 10 / 100
Workington 83 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
AFC Emley Workington

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Workington Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

AFC Emley found the back of the net in 62% of recent matches (29 games).

Workington let in goals in 68% of their last 28 matches.

Recent resilience: AFC Emley stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

AFC Emley VS Workington
1.25 Goals Scored 2.13
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.5
88% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 88%
25% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

AFC Emley

(Home)
12 Sept
Bury FC
4 : 0
AFC Emley
09 Sept
Bishop Auckland
0 : 2
AFC Emley
06 Sept
AFC Emley
1 : 1
Bishop Auckland
31 Aug
AFC Emley
0 : 4
Guiseley
29 Aug
Warrington Town
2 : 2
AFC Emley
Page 1 of 6

Workington

(Away)
12 Sept
Workington
3 : 1
Ilkeston
05 Sept
Workington
3 : 0
Marske United
31 Aug
Lancaster
0 : 3
Workington
29 Aug
Workington
3 : 2
Leek Town
25 Aug
Workington
3 : 2
Warrington Rylands
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Cleethorpes 9 7 1 1 24:5 22
2 Avro 9 7 1 1 28:16 22
3 Redcar Athletic 9 6 3 0 18:6 21
4 Guiseley 9 6 1 2 22:10 19
5 Warrington Town 9 5 2 2 18:14 17
6 Bury FC 9 5 1 3 19:8 16
7 Curzon Ashton 9 5 1 3 18:10 16
8 Workington 9 5 1 3 17:15 16
9 Gainsborough 9 4 1 4 14:12 13
10 Warrington Rylands 9 4 1 4 12:13 13
11 Alfreton 9 4 0 5 15:10 12
12 Whitby 9 4 0 5 14:24 12
13 Ashton United 9 3 2 4 10:9 11
14 Hyde 9 3 2 4 10:17 11
15 AFC Emley 9 2 4 3 8:15 10
16 Lancaster 9 3 1 5 9:17 10
17 Bamber Bridge 9 2 3 4 12:22 9
18 Ilkeston 9 2 1 6 6:21 7
19 Leek Town 9 1 3 5 17:19 6
20 Quorn 9 1 3 5 12:23 6
21 United of Manchester 9 1 2 6 12:19 5
22 Stockton 9 1 2 6 8:18 5
Promotion - National League North 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - NPL Premier Division (Play Offs)
Promotion - NPL Premier Division (Play Offs)