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AFC Emley vs Workington - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

England England

NPL Premier Division
Our Tip

Match Events

20' Event
Own Goal
48' Event
Hunter L.
53' Event
Palmer J. J.

AI Match Summary

The NPL Premier Division game between AFC Emley and Workington finished 1-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Workington.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

45%
AFC Emley
15%
Draws
40%
Workington
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: AFC Emley

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

45% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Workington come out ahead of AFC Emley on wins alone.
  • Model gives AFC Emley a 45% chance of winning this.
  • Regular NPL Premier Division form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.2%
AFC Emley Clean Sheet 10%
Workington Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric AFC Emley Workington
Matches Played 29 27
Wins 8 13
Draws 7 4
Losses 14 10
Goals Scored 0.97 1.74
Goals Conceded 1.72 1.7
Expected Goals (xG) 1.44 2.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 29, 2026 NPL Premier Division
AFC Emley vs Workington
1:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

AFC Emley Compare

Avg xG / game 1.11
Avg xA / game 0.72

Workington Compare

Top Goalscorer Hunter L.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Palmer J. J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.94
Avg xA / game 1.18

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

AFC Emley 38 / 100
Workington 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
AFC Emley Workington

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick AFC Emley Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Workington conceded in 89% of 27 recent games.

Games between these two average 4.00 goals.

AFC Emley's goal record stands at 62% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Recent resilience: AFC Emley stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

AFC Emley VS Workington
1.13 Goals Scored 2
2.25 Goals Conceded 1.75
88% Over 1.5 100%
75% Over 2.5 88%
50% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

AFC Emley

(Home)
03 Nov
AFC Emley
2 : 0
Bamber Bridge
31 Oct
Alfreton
2 : 1
AFC Emley
24 Oct
AFC Emley
1 : 0
Lancaster
17 Oct
Stockton
1 : 3
AFC Emley
13 Oct
United of Manchester
1 : 1
AFC Emley
Page 1 of 6

Workington

(Away)
31 Oct
Bury FC
1 : 2
Workington
27 Oct
Workington
3 : 2
Cleethorpes
17 Oct
Bamber Bridge
1 : 2
Workington
13 Oct
Workington
1 : 2
Whitby
10 Oct
Quorn
3 : 0
Workington
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Redcar Athletic 16 10 5 1 35:15 35
2 Cleethorpes 15 10 3 2 32:9 33
3 Guiseley 15 10 2 3 33:15 32
4 Curzon Ashton 16 10 1 5 30:18 31
5 Gainsborough 16 9 2 5 32:21 29
6 Avro 16 9 2 5 39:30 29
7 Workington 16 8 3 5 28:26 27
8 Warrington Rylands 15 8 2 5 27:22 26
9 Warrington Town 16 7 5 4 28:24 26
10 Bury FC 14 7 2 5 30:18 23
11 Alfreton 16 7 2 7 23:18 23
12 Lancaster 17 6 3 8 20:29 21
13 AFC Emley 17 5 5 7 19:28 20
14 Whitby 16 6 1 9 22:42 19
15 Quorn 15 4 6 5 27:32 18
16 Stockton 16 4 3 9 23:28 15
17 Hyde 16 4 3 9 15:30 15
18 Ashton United 16 3 5 8 18:21 14
19 Leek Town 16 3 5 8 31:37 14
20 Ilkeston 16 4 1 11 11:34 13
21 United of Manchester 16 2 6 8 20:27 12
22 Bamber Bridge 16 2 5 9 18:37 11
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