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AFC Fylde vs Southport

England England

FA Trophy 2025/2026 Mill Farm
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

AFC Fylde play Southport in the FA Trophy 2025/2026. It looks like a close match. Recently, AFC Fylde averaged 2.43 goals scored and 1.14 conceded. Southport averaged 1.55 goals scored and 1.48 conceded. In past meetings, AFC Fylde won 4, Southport won 1, and they drew 0. Their last match on Apr 18, 2026 ended 4:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 2.06 for AFC Fylde and 1.38 for Southport. This points to a AFC Fylde double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

50%
AFC Fylde
15%
Draws
35%
Southport
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: AFC Fylde

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

76% / High Confidence
  • AFC Fylde picked up more points recently compared to Southport.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (2.06 vs 1.38 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 61%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 79%
Over 2.5 Goals 61%
Over 3.5 Goals 37%
Over 4.5 Goals 18%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 58%
AFC Fylde Clean Sheet 17%
Southport Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 71%
Second Half Goal 75%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric AFC Fylde Southport
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 18 14
Draws 2 5
Losses 8 10
Goals Scored 2.43 1.55
Goals Conceded 1.14 1.48
Expected Goals (xG) 2.25 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.25 1.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 18, 2026 National League North
AFC Fylde vs Southport
4:0
Jan 31, 2026 FA Trophy
AFC Fylde vs Southport
0:1
Aug 25, 2025 National League North
Southport vs AFC Fylde
2:3
Jan 14, 2023 National League North
Southport vs AFC Fylde
1:2
Aug 29, 2022 National League North
AFC Fylde vs Southport
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

AFC Fylde Compare

Avg xG / game 1.73
Avg xA / game 1.13

Southport Compare

Top Goalscorer Lavelle T.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

AFC Fylde 48 / 100
Southport 34 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
AFC Fylde Southport

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: AFC Fylde or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +19%
2.38
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +11%
1.82
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

AFC Fylde attacking → ← attacking Southport

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

AFC Fylde scored in 79% of their last 28 games.

Southport let in goals in 76% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 2.80 goals.

AFC Fylde went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Southport lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

56 Points in last 5 47
2.25 Goals expected (xG) 1.50
1.25 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.88