Sport Picks

Stadium Background

AFC Malmo vs Tvaaker

Sweden Sweden

Division 1 - Södra Hyllie IP, Malmö
Our Tip

Match Events

46'
Sub
Castro V. In: Awad A.
Out: Castro V.
46'
Sub
Reinholdsson A. In: Sener C.
Out: Reinholdsson A.
46'
Sub
Hebrunn G. In: Martinsson F.
Out: Hebrunn G.

AI Match Summary

Tvaaker in this Division 1 - Södra matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Tvaaker.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

17%
AFC Malmo
35%
Draws
48%
Tvaaker
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Tvaaker

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

48% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Tvaaker lately — more wins on the board than AFC Malmo.
  • Win probability leans Tvaaker's way, sitting at 40%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.6%
AFC Malmo Clean Sheet 10%
Tvaaker Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric AFC Malmo Tvaaker
Matches Played 28 26
Wins 12 13
Draws 8 7
Losses 8 6
Goals Scored 2.04 2
Goals Conceded 1.5 1.23
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 12, 2026 Division 1 - Södra
Tvaaker vs AFC Malmo
0:0
May 18, 2026 Division 1 - Södra
AFC Malmo vs Tvaaker
0:1
Aug 25, 2024 Division 1 - Södra
AFC Malmo vs Tvaaker
4:1
Jun 8, 2024 Division 1 - Södra
Tvaaker vs AFC Malmo
0:2
Aug 19, 2023 Division 1 - Södra
AFC Malmo vs Tvaaker
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

AFC Malmo Compare

Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81

Tvaaker Compare

Top Goalscorer Ajdarevic A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.71
Avg xA / game 1.04

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

AFC Malmo 26 / 100
Tvaaker 38 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
AFC Malmo Tvaaker

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Tvaaker Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: AFC Malmo scored in 86% of their last 28 outings.

Tvaaker let in goals in 62% of their last 26 matches.

These sides typically produce 1.80 goals when they meet.

Recent resilience: AFC Malmo stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

AFC Malmo VS Tvaaker
1.63 Goals Scored 1.63
2.13 Goals Conceded 1.63
88% Over 1.5 75%
88% Over 2.5 63%
63% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

AFC Malmo

(Home)
12 Sept
Tvaaker
0 : 0
AFC Malmo
05 Sept
AFC Malmo
2 : 2
Atvidaberg
30 Aug
Laholms
2 : 2
AFC Malmo
22 Aug
AFC Malmo
2 : 5
Lunds Bois
15 Aug
Olympic
2 : 2
AFC Malmo
Page 1 of 6

Tvaaker

(Away)
12 Sept
Tvaaker
0 : 0
AFC Malmo
06 Sept
Jonkoping
0 : 1
Tvaaker
29 Aug
Tvaaker
1 : 1
Skovde
22 Aug
Olympic
3 : 4
Tvaaker
15 Aug
Kristianstad
1 : 2
Tvaaker
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Trelleborg 21 12 6 3 44:24 42
2 Hassleholms IF 21 12 3 6 41:26 39
3 Atvidaberg 21 11 6 4 45:32 39
4 Lunds Bois 21 10 8 3 44:26 38
5 Rosengard 21 9 7 5 35:28 34
6 Tvaaker 21 9 6 6 28:28 33
7 AFC Malmo 21 8 8 5 39:31 32
8 Trollhattan 21 7 7 7 33:33 28
9 Jonkoping 21 7 6 8 25:20 27
10 Skovde 21 6 9 6 23:29 27
11 Olympic 21 8 2 11 38:43 26
12 Eskilsminne 21 7 4 10 32:38 25
13 Kristianstad 21 5 6 10 25:33 21
14 Laholms 21 6 3 12 28:38 21
15 Angelholm 21 3 8 10 25:39 17
16 Utsikten 21 1 5 15 17:54 8
Promotion - Superettan 2027 (Main)
Promotion - Division 1 - Norra (Promotion)
Relegation - Division 1 - Norra (Relegation - Play Offs)