Sport Picks
AFC Wimbledon vs Northampton
England
EFL Trophy 2025/2026 The Cherry Red Records Stadium, London 
Match Events
38'
38'
Vale J.
Assist: Jacobs M.
50'
50'
Stevens M.
51'
51'
Sub
Lewis J. In: Ogundere I.
Out: Lewis J.
AI Match Summary
This match ends 1-2, with Northampton advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
51%
20%
29%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: AFC Wimbledon
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
20%
/ Low Confidence
- Look at the last few games and AFC Wimbledon come out ahead of Northampton on wins alone.
- Model gives AFC Wimbledon a 42% chance of winning this.
- AFC Wimbledon have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
- Historical meetings favor Northampton, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.2%
AFC Wimbledon Clean Sheet 20%
Northampton Clean Sheet 15%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | AFC Wimbledon | Northampton |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 29 |
| Wins | 10 | 3 |
| Draws | 4 | 6 |
| Losses | 15 | 20 |
| Goals Scored | 1 | 0.72 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.55 | 1.79 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.00 | 1.19 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Mar 8, 2026 League One
AFC Wimbledon vs Northampton
1:0
Feb 10, 2026 EFL Trophy
AFC Wimbledon vs Northampton
1:2
Dec 19, 2025 League One
Northampton vs AFC Wimbledon
3:1
Feb 14, 2023 League Two
Northampton vs AFC Wimbledon
0:0
Sep 13, 2022 League Two
AFC Wimbledon vs Northampton
0:2
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
AFC Wimbledon Compare
Top Goalscorer Stevens M.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5
Northampton Compare
Top Goalscorer Vale J.
1 Goals Assists Leader Eaves T.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.66
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
AFC Wimbledon 42 / 100
Northampton 37 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
AFC Wimbledon Northampton
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Northampton's defensive record shows goals conceded in 86% of 29 matches.
Games between these two average 2.00 goals.
Recent resilience: AFC Wimbledon stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.
AFC Wimbledon found the back of the net in 59% of recent matches (29 games).
Scoring Trends
AFC Wimbledon VS Northampton
0.88 Goals Scored 0.38
2 Goals Conceded 1.13
75% Over 1.5 50%
75% Over 2.5 13%
25% Over 3.5 0%
Recent Form & Match History
AFC Wimbledon
(Home) 12 Sept
AFC Wimbledon
1 : 0 Doncaster
07 Sept
Bromley
0 : 2 AFC Wimbledon
02 Sept
Burton
4 : 1 AFC Wimbledon
30 Aug
AFC Wimbledon
1 : 0 Wigan
27 Aug
Fulham
3 : 0 AFC Wimbledon
Page 1 of 6
12 Sept
AFC Wimbledon
1 : 0 Doncaster
30 Aug
AFC Wimbledon
1 : 0 Wigan
22 Aug
AFC Wimbledon
0 : 0 Reading
08 Aug
AFC Wimbledon
2 : 1 Newport
01 Aug
AFC Wimbledon
2 : 3 QPR
Page 1 of 4
Northampton
(Away) 12 Sept
Shrewsbury
2 : 0 Northampton
05 Sept
Northampton
1 : 0 Newport
01 Sept
Northampton
1 : 1 Crawley Town
29 Aug
Gillingham
1 : 1 Northampton
22 Aug
Crewe
1 : 0 Northampton
Page 1 of 6
12 Sept
Shrewsbury
2 : 0 Northampton
29 Aug
Gillingham
1 : 1 Northampton
22 Aug
Crewe
1 : 0 Northampton
08 Aug
Leicester
1 : 0 Northampton
01 Aug
Solihull Moors
2 : 4 Northampton
Page 1 of 4
Tournament Bracket & Draw
1/16-finals
Lincoln City 0
Huddersfield 2
Salford 2
Rotherham 7
Doncaster 5
Chesterfield 1
Tranmere 0
Fleetwood Town 3
Bolton 3
Bradford City 0
Port Vale 5
Barnsley 0
Crewe 1
Stockport County 2
Harrogate 4
Blackpool 2
Luton 4
Exeter 0
Swindon 1
Peterborough 0
Bristol Rovers 3
Cambridge Utd 2
Leyton Orient 0
Plymouth 1
Cardiff 1
AFC Wimbledon 5
Colchester 0
West Ham U21 1
Northampton 2
Wycombe 0
Stevenage 1
Walsall 2
1/8-finals
Huddersfield 3
Rotherham 0
Doncaster 3
Fleetwood Town 1
Bolton 0
Port Vale 1
Stockport County 2
Harrogate 1
Luton 1
Swindon 2
Bristol Rovers 3
Plymouth 4
AFC Wimbledon 4
West Ham U21 2
Northampton 4
Walsall 2
Quarter-finals
Huddersfield 1
Doncaster 2
Port Vale 0
Stockport County 4
Luton 2
Plymouth 1
AFC Wimbledon 1
Northampton 2
Semi-finals
Doncaster 0
Stockport County 1
Luton 2
Northampton 1
Final
Stockport County 1
Luton 3
