Sport Picks
AFC Wimbledon vs Northampton
England
EFL Trophy 2025/2026 The Cherry Red Records Stadium, London 
Match Events
38'
38'
Vale J.
Assist: Jacobs M.
50'
50'
Stevens M.
51'
51'
Sub
Lewis J. In: Ogundere I.
Out: Lewis J.
AI Match Summary
This match ends 1-2, with Northampton advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
30%
39%
31%
Draw rate projection: 39% Favored: Draw
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
65%
/ Medium Confidence
- Look at the last few games and AFC Wimbledon come out ahead of Northampton on wins alone.
- Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
- AFC Wimbledon have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
- Historical meetings favor Northampton, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.8%
AFC Wimbledon Clean Sheet 68%
Northampton Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | AFC Wimbledon | Northampton |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 28 | 30 |
| Wins | 9 | 5 |
| Draws | 5 | 5 |
| Losses | 14 | 20 |
| Goals Scored | 0.5 | 0.75 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.75 | 2.5 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 0.50 | 0.75 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.75 | 2.50 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Mar 8, 2026 League One
AFC Wimbledon vs Northampton
1:0
Feb 10, 2026 EFL Trophy
AFC Wimbledon vs Northampton
1:2
Dec 19, 2025 League One
Northampton vs AFC Wimbledon
3:1
Feb 14, 2023 League Two
Northampton vs AFC Wimbledon
0:0
Sep 13, 2022 League Two
AFC Wimbledon vs Northampton
0:2
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
AFC Wimbledon Compare
Top Goalscorer Stevens M.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.38
Avg xA / game 0.25
Northampton Compare
Top Goalscorer Vale J.
1 Goals Assists Leader Eaves T.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.42
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
AFC Wimbledon 41 / 100
Northampton 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
AFC Wimbledon Northampton
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick WIM Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Northampton's defensive record shows goals conceded in 87% of 30 matches.
AFC Wimbledon scored in 61% of their last 28 games.
These sides typically produce 2.00 goals when they meet.
Solid form: AFC Wimbledon remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.
Scoring Trends
AFC Wimbledon VS Northampton
0.5 Goals Scored 0.75
1.75 Goals Conceded 2.5
63% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 75%
25% Over 3.5 50%
Recent Form & Match History
AFC Wimbledon
(Home) 22 Jul
AFC Wimbledon
0 : 0 Norwich
18 Jul
Sutton
1 : 2 AFC Wimbledon
02 May
AFC Wimbledon
0 : 4 Huddersfield
25 Apr
Wigan
0 : 1 AFC Wimbledon
18 Apr
AFC Wimbledon
1 : 3 Plymouth
Page 1 of 6
22 Jul
AFC Wimbledon
0 : 0 Norwich
02 May
AFC Wimbledon
0 : 4 Huddersfield
18 Apr
AFC Wimbledon
1 : 3 Plymouth
15 Apr
AFC Wimbledon
0 : 2 Stockport County
06 Apr
AFC Wimbledon
0 : 3 Luton
Page 1 of 3
Northampton
(Away) 22 Jul
Southend
1 : 3 Northampton
18 Jul
Northampton
0 : 0 Coventry
11 Jul
Leicester
3 : 0 Northampton
02 May
Northampton
2 : 3 Plymouth
28 Apr
Northampton
0 : 1 Barnsley
Page 1 of 6
22 Jul
Southend
1 : 3 Northampton
11 Jul
Leicester
3 : 0 Northampton
25 Apr
Cardiff
5 : 1 Northampton
15 Apr
Luton
2 : 1 Northampton
03 Apr
Bradford City
1 : 0 Northampton
Page 1 of 4
Tournament Bracket & Draw
1/16-finals
Lincoln City0
Huddersfield2
Salford2
Rotherham7
Doncaster5
Chesterfield1
Tranmere0
Fleetwood Town3
Bolton3
Bradford City0
Port Vale5
Barnsley0
Crewe1
Stockport County2
Harrogate4
Blackpool2
Luton4
Exeter0
Swindon1
Peterborough0
Bristol Rovers3
Cambridge Utd2
Leyton Orient0
Plymouth1
Cardiff1
AFC Wimbledon5
Colchester0
West Ham U211
Northampton2
Wycombe0
Stevenage1
Walsall2
1/8-finals
Huddersfield3
Rotherham0
Doncaster3
Fleetwood Town1
Bolton0
Port Vale1
Stockport County2
Harrogate1
Luton1
Swindon2
Bristol Rovers3
Plymouth4
AFC Wimbledon4
West Ham U212
Northampton4
Walsall2
Quarter-finals
Huddersfield1
Doncaster2
Port Vale0
Stockport County4
Luton2
Plymouth1
AFC Wimbledon1
Northampton2
Semi-finals
Doncaster0
Stockport County1
Luton2
Northampton1
Final
Stockport County1
Luton3