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Afghanistan vs Tajikistan

Asia Asia

CAFA Nations Cup
Our Tip

Match Events

24' Event
Pandzhshanbe E.
(Penalty)
35'
Safarov M.
45'
Skandari T.

AI Match Summary

This match ends 0-2, with Tajikistan advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

4%
Afghanistan
6%
Draws
90%
Tajikistan
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Tajikistan

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Tajikistan carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 90% — that's where the model lands on Tajikistan taking it.
  • Tajikistan arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Tajikistan, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Tajikistan have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28%
Afghanistan Clean Sheet 12%
Tajikistan Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Afghanistan Tajikistan
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 4 13
Draws 8 7
Losses 16 9
Goals Scored 0.38 2.25
Goals Conceded 1.25 0.5
Expected Goals (xG) 0.38 2.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.25 0.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 1, 2025 CAFA Nations Cup
Afghanistan vs Tajikistan
0:2
Nov 19, 2024 Friendly International
Tajikistan vs Afghanistan
3:1
Jun 7, 2019 Friendly International
Tajikistan vs Afghanistan
1:1
Nov 13, 2016 Friendly International
Tajikistan vs Afghanistan
1:0
May 4, 2014 Friendly International
Tajikistan vs Afghanistan
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Afghanistan Compare

Avg xG / game 0.29
Avg xA / game 0.19

Tajikistan Compare

Top Goalscorer Mabatshoev S.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 2.05
Avg xA / game 1.25

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Afghanistan 10 / 100
Tajikistan 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Afghanistan Tajikistan

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick TAJ Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:3
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Tajikistan conceded in 69% of 29 recent games.

Historical meetings average 2.00 goals per match.

Attacking prowess: Afghanistan scored in 50% of their last 28 outings.

Afghanistan went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Afghanistan VS Tajikistan
0.38 Goals Scored 2.25
1.25 Goals Conceded 0.5
50% Over 1.5 88%
25% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Afghanistan

(Home)
10 Jun
Pakistan
2 : 0
Afghanistan
07 Jun
Afghanistan
0 : 2
Pakistan
04 Jun
Afghanistan
0 : 0
Bangladesh U23
01 Jun
Maldives
0 : 1
Afghanistan
31 Mar
Syria
5 : 1
Afghanistan
Page 1 of 6

Tajikistan

(Away)
09 Jun
Tajikistan
1 : 1
India
05 Jun
Tajikistan
3 : 1
India
31 Mar
Tajikistan
1 : 1
Philippines
18 Nov
Timor-Leste
0 : 5
Tajikistan
14 Oct
Maldives
0 : 3
Tajikistan
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Uzbekistan32107:27
2Oman32105:37
3Turkmenistan30123:51
4Kyrgyzstan30122:71
Promotion - CAFA Nations Cup (Play Offs)
Promotion - CAFA Nations Cup (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Iran32108:37
2India31112:44
3Tajikistan31115:44
4Afghanistan30121:51
Promotion - CAFA Nations Cup (Play Offs)
Promotion - CAFA Nations Cup (Play Offs)